Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-10 10:21Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar supply is expected to be loose due to the good supply prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries during the monsoon season and the increase in Brazilian exports, which suppresses raw sugar prices. However, Pakistan's plan to import 500,000 tons and the year - on - year decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of June provide short - term support for raw sugar [2]. - In the domestic market, there is a divergence in price trends between domestic and international markets. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, which will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. On the demand side, the peak summer consumption season and the restocking demand in the food and beverage industry, along with the recovery of seasonal consumption such as cold drinks, provide some support for prices. Overall, the domestic sugar price has been fluctuating following raw sugar, but due to the recovery of domestic demand, it has performed stronger than the international market. In the later stage, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to more volatile prices. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,805 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 298,087 lots, an increase of 10,840 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 22,934, a decrease of 53. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,947 lots, an increase of 10,763 lots [2]. - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 4,498 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 5,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 470 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it is 6,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons. The cumulative national sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons. The monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.59%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.6%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.73%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.55%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending July 9, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, up from 80 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 3.6855 million tons, up from 3.2059 million tons the previous week [2].