“淡化”3500点

Strategy Overview - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3500-point mark, primarily driven by strong performance in the financial sector and expectations surrounding the "anti-involution" policy [1][2] - For the index to advance further, the effectiveness of incremental policies such as "anti-involution" needs to be demonstrated [2] Market Sentiment - There is a notable psychological focus on the 3500-point threshold, which may lead to passive selling by quantitative funds when this integer level is reached [2] - The report suggests downplaying the emphasis on the index's integer levels and instead focusing on the total return index, which better reflects the true performance of the Shanghai market [2] Financial Sector Contribution - As of July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 4.2%, with the financial sector contributing 2.8% to this growth [2][4] - The strong performance of bank and insurance stocks is identified as a core reason for the index's ability to reach the 3500-point level [2] Trading Volume Considerations - The report discusses the importance of trading volume in maintaining the index above 3500 points, suggesting that the focus should be on the financial sector's index performance rather than overall market trading volume [2] - Historical trends indicate that the banking sector's index benefits from incremental capital flows, with a stable trading volume leading to gradual price increases [2] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy, as defined in the sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee, is expected to aid in macroeconomic structural adjustments and improve pricing factors, which could facilitate a classic market structure of "weight lifting and technology growth" [2] - This structure is anticipated to help the index achieve a "two steps forward, one step back" effect, leading to an upward shift in the market's central tendency [2] Sector Rotation and Investment Focus - The report notes a rapid rotation among sectors, with high absolute readings in sentiment indicators, suggesting a dual constraint of "upside risk" and "drawdown control" [2] - It recommends focusing on relatively undervalued technology growth sectors for potential investment opportunities [2]