A股市场2025年中期投资策略报告：从“山重水复”到“柳暗花明”-20250710

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the long-term bull market is not over, and investors should focus on growth opportunities [8][119] - The easing of trade friction between China and the U.S. has led to improved bilateral trade conditions, with both sides reducing tariffs [8][50] - The report highlights the importance of policy-driven capital inflows into the market, which are expected to stabilize market performance [8][91] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has caused significant short-term disruptions to its major trading partners, with trade balances showing varying degrees of decline [8][14] - The report notes that the U.S. economy has shown resilience despite the negative impacts of tariff policies, with a rebound in service sector PMI [8][30] - Historical analysis indicates that U.S. tariff policies often lead to self-inflicted economic consequences, typically resulting in negotiations or retractions [8][44] Group 3: Industry Themes and Opportunities - The report identifies several key sectors for investment, including defense and military, low-altitude economy, stablecoins, AI technologies, and autonomous robotics [8][119] - The defense and military sector is highlighted due to geopolitical tensions, which are expected to drive demand and performance [8][119] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with market size estimates reaching 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [8][119] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Trends - Domestic consumption is gradually recovering, with retail sales showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in May [8][64] - The report indicates that infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable, supported by government policies and funding [8][70] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with a reduction in the inventory of unsold properties and a narrowing decline in housing prices [8][73]