Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - and long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price - decline cycle, a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price loosening - lithium salt price drop again" may occur. When the futures price rebounds, a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price rise - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" may form, but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; in the fourth quarter, the futures price will fluctuate downward as technological upgrades end and production output is released [3]. - Strategy suggestions: conduct a long - LC2509 and short - LC2511 calendar spread; short LC2511 at high prices [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - Price and Volatility: The predicted price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 60,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.2% and a historical percentile of 17.6% over three years [2]. - Contract Data: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 64,180 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan (- 0.34%) from the previous day; the trading volume is 398,022 lots, up 47,897 lots (13.68%); the open interest is 323,683 lots, down 3,212 lots (- 0.98%). For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 63,920 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan (- 0.25%); the trading volume is 38,236 lots, up 7,655 lots (25.03%); the open interest is 99,240 lots, up 4,881 lots (5.17%) [9]. - Month - spread Data: The LC08 - 11 month - spread is 600 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the LC09 - 11 month - spread is 260 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 19%); the LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 320 yuan, down 220 yuan (220%) [12]. 2. Spot Data - Lithium Ore: The latest average prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O contents (2 - 2.5%, 3 - 4%, 5 - 5.5%) are 1,405 yuan/ton, 2,540 yuan/ton, and 4,995 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan (1.44%), 25 yuan (0.99%), and 45 yuan (0.91%). For lithium辉石 with Li₂O:6% (Brazil CIF, Australian CIF, fastmarkets), the prices are 670 US dollars/ton, 675 US dollars/ton, and 675 US dollars/ton, with daily increases of 0 US dollars (0%), 5 US dollars (0.75%), and 5 US dollars (0.74%). The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O:6 - 7%) is 4,565 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (1.44%). The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1771, down 0.0031 (- 0.04%) [16]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The latest average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium carbonate are 62,050 yuan/ton and 63,650 yuan/ton respectively, both up 350 yuan (0.57% and 0.55%). The prices of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) are 51,970 yuan/ton and 62,570 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) is 8 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars (- 0.62%); the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF China, Japan, and South Korea (fastmarkets) is 8.00 US dollars/kg, unchanged [19]. - Lithium Industry Chain Spreads: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 1,080 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan (47.95%); the battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea - domestic spread is - 212 yuan/ton, down 382.51 yuan (- 224.33%) [21]. - Downstream Products: The latest average prices of power - type, low - end energy - storage type, and mid - to - high - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate are 31,030 yuan/ton, 27,360 yuan/ton, and 29,605 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 80 yuan (0.26%), 80 yuan (0.29%), and 85 yuan (0.29%). The price of lithium manganese iron phosphate is 43,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.12%). For ternary materials (523 - type for consumption, 622 - type for consumption, 811 - type for power), the prices are 106,100 yuan/ton, 111,050 yuan/ton, and 142,850 yuan/ton, with daily increases of 140 yuan (0%), 30 yuan (0.03%), and 70 yuan (0.05%). The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 51,050 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan (- 0.97%). The prices of electrolytes for lithium iron phosphate, lithium - iron energy - storage, lithium - iron power, and ternary power are 17,800 yuan/ton, 16,900 yuan/ton, 19,300 yuan/ton, and 21,750 yuan/ton respectively, all down 150 yuan (- 1%) [23][24]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - receipt Data - Basis: The basis quotes of lithium carbonate brands such as Shengxin Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, etc., for the LC2507 contract range from - 400 yuan to 500 yuan, with no daily changes. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for the LC2507 contract is 162.5 yuan, unchanged [27]. - Warehouse - receipt Quantity: The total number of warehouse receipts is 13,281, down 90 from the previous day. The warehouse - receipt quantities of some warehouses have changed, such as a decrease of 60 in Suining Tiancheng and an increase of 30 in Cosco Shipping Nanchang [32]. 4. Cost and Profit - Not elaborated in detail in the content, only provides some profit trend charts including production profit from外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O:6%), production profit from外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O:2.5%), theoretical delivery profit, and import profit [30]
南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250710
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-10 12:12