山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing up 0.49% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing up 0.22% [1] - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.49%, and the main contract of London Gold decreased by 0.50%. The main contract of Comex gold increased by 0.31% [1][2] - Core Logic: Short - term trade war risks, US stagflation risk, and strong employment suppressing interest rate cuts [1] - Attributes Analysis - Safe - haven: Trump's new tariff measures on 14 countries, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, 50% on copper, and up to 200% on drugs [1] - Monetary: The Fed's meeting minutes show low support for a July interest rate cut, and strong employment rules out the possibility of a near - term rate cut. The market expects the next rate cut in September, with the total rate cut space in 2025 falling back to around 50 basis points [1] - Commodity: The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] Silver - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.63%, and the main contract of London Silver decreased by 1.74%. The main contract of Comex silver decreased by 0.27% [6] - Core Logic: Gold price is the anchor for silver price, with reduced capital positions and slightly increased visible inventory [5] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion [8] - Inflation Data: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68% [10] - Economic Growth Data: GDP annualized year - on - year is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is - 0.50%, and the unemployment rate is 4.10% [10] - Other Data: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57%, the US dollar index is 97.55, and the geopolitical risk index is 132.88 [8][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for future interest rate changes [12]