镍、不锈钢：日内回调近日跌幅，预计宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was oscillating strongly, basically recovering recent losses, with its fluctuations affected by the non - ferrous market. On the fundamental side, the increase in the shipment volume of mines from the Philippines led to a certain decline in prices, but the subsequent downward space of ore prices was limited due to the disturbance of nickel ore quotas. The intraday transaction price of ferronickel stabilized, mainly affected by weak downstream demand, and was currently close to the conversion spread of high - grade nickel matte. The intraday trend of stainless steel was strong, but the spot reaction was limited, and there was no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. Currently, the tariff game between Indonesia and the United States increased the sentiment disturbance in the downstream of the nickel industry chain. The new energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. The subsequent focus should be on the impact of macro - tariffs and the trend of the non - ferrous market [3]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. 3.2 Management Strategies - Inventory Management: When the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (sell 60% of Shanghai nickel main contracts), and sell call options (50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [2]. - Procurement Management: If the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance, and sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The cobalt mine ban in Congo continues; Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; The tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the United States may involve the subsequent trend of the nickel industry chain [4]. - Negative Factors: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; The contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepens, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [4]. 3.4 Market Data - Nickel Disk Daily Data: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,140 yuan/ton, a 2% increase; trading volume decreased by 8.02% to 102,155 lots; open interest decreased by 9.74% to 65,815 lots; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% to 20,605 tons; the basis of the main contract was - 860 yuan/ton, a - 31.8% change [5]. - Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,865 yuan/ton, a 1% increase; trading volume increased by 2.43% to 101,032 lots; open interest decreased by 2.76% to 85,345 lots; the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 111,290 tons; the basis of the main contract was 300 yuan/ton, a - 18.92% change [6]. - Nickel Industry Inventory: Domestic social inventory of nickel was 38,029 tons, an increase of 186 tons; LME nickel inventory was 204,738 tons, an increase of 1,176 tons; stainless steel social inventory was 978 tons, a decrease of 14.1 tons; ferronickel inventory was 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [7].