银河期货花生日报-20250710

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of peanuts is still tight, but the downstream demand remains weak, so the peanut prices are relatively weak in the short term [5][10] - Peanut oil prices are stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable [10] - PK510 peanuts are trading new crops, with many uncertainties such as weather. In the short term, they will fluctuate at the bottom. However, due to the expected increase in planting area and decrease in planting cost, PK510 will still fluctuate within a narrow range [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - Futures Market: PK504 closed at 7972, up 26 (0.33%), with a trading volume increase of 200.00% and an open interest increase of 1.43%; PK510 closed at 8188, up 12 (0.15%), with a trading volume decrease of 46.04% and an open interest decrease of 3.44%; PK601 closed at 7970, up 10 (0.13%), with a trading volume decrease of 46.54% and an open interest increase of 3.88% [3] - Spot Market: The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China declined. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.55 - 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8250 yuan/ton, stable from yesterday [5] - By - product Market: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was stable at 2790 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and peanut meal was weak in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [8] - Price Difference: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 2, down 16; the PK04 - PK10 spread was - 216, up 14; the PK10 - PK01 spread was 218, up 2 [3] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China declined. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.55 - 4.7 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday; the price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable from yesterday. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8250 yuan/ton, stable from yesterday [5] - Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the mainstream transaction price remaining at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 8220 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see in the short term as PK510 peanuts fluctuate at high levels [11] - Spread: Go for reverse arbitrage when the PK10 - PK01 spread is low [12] - Options: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [13] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's pressing profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, the spread between PK10 and PK01 contracts, and the spread between PK3 and PK10 contracts [16][19][23]