工业硅周报：短多长空，关注西北电价情况-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon Report - Short - term: The price is affected by market sentiment and may be strong. The futures price rising above 8000 yuan/ton may increase the number of hedging manufacturers. The price increase above 8000 yuan/ton is more affected by sentiment, and once it exceeds 8500 yuan/ton, the supply of industrial silicon in the flood season may increase unexpectedly due to hedging by southwest manufacturers [3]. - Medium - to - long - term: It is recommended to go short. If the leading large manufacturers do not resume production, the trend may be weakly oscillating; if they resume production, it may fall unilaterally. The 8500 yuan/ton level on the disk still faces significant pressure [3]. Polysilicon Report - Short - term: The futures are still strong, trading on price - limit and policy expectations. The 36000 yuan/ton level is a short - term pressure level, and if the spot transaction price drops, the futures price may fall [47]. - Medium - to - long - term: As capacity consolidation progresses, it is a buying opportunity after the disk has fully corrected [47]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: Leading large manufacturers have cut production by nearly 40%, reducing monthly output by 60,000 tons. Southwest silicon plants have复产 35 - 40 small submerged arc furnaces, increasing monthly output by about 40,000 tons. The total monthly output decreases by 20,000 tons. In July, the maximum resumption capacity of polysilicon exceeds 300,000 tons, and the monthly demand for industrial silicon may increase by about 20,000 tons. Without the resumption of leading large manufacturers, about 30,000 tons of industrial silicon will be destocked in July [3]. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: Short - term strength, medium - to - long - term potential decline [4]. - Options: Sell Si2509 - C - 8500 [4]. - Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Market Review: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both strong. Good commodity sentiment drives the futures price up, but the hedging pressure of manufacturers causes the futures to oscillate widely. The spot price has generally increased by 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week [6]. - Downstream Demand: This week, the weekly output of DMC decreased by 0.21% to 46,600 tons; the weekly output of polysilicon increased by 0.86% to 23,400 tons; the operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained flat at 54.6% and 53.9% respectively. The operating rate of silicone has increased to a high level since June, and it is expected to remain flat in July. The output of polysilicon is expected to continue to increase in July [12]. - Industrial Silicon Output: This week, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 0.39% to 72,000 tons. The number of open furnaces of leading large manufacturers in Xinjiang has decreased to 48, and the output has dropped significantly. In Yunnan and Sichuan, the electricity price has decreased in July, and it is expected that the number of open furnaces will increase by 35 - 40 compared to early June. Overall, the weekly output in July will decrease compared to June before the resumption of large manufacturers in the northwest [21]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: The total social inventory is 552,000 tons, a 0.85% increase. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang is 150,100 tons, a 13.91% decrease; in Yunnan, it is 26,700 tons, a 0.38% increase; in Sichuan, it is 23,300 tons, a 1.69% decrease [22]. - Related Product Prices: The spot price of industrial silicon has increased this week. The prices of DMC and its terminal products have weakened. The DMC profit has deteriorated again. The operating rate of aluminum alloys has remained stable. The electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan have decreased, and the spot price of refined coal in Xinjiang has stopped falling [28][31][41]. Polysilicon Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: Polysilicon capacity consolidation is imperative and is being promoted. In the long - term, the price is basically at the bottom. In the short - term, last week's futures price increase was mainly due to price - limit and policy expectations, and manufacturers have raised their spot quotes. In July, supply increases while demand decreases, and the downstream silicon wafer price is low, making the short - term industry outlook bearish. However, due to the news of the cancellation of electricity subsidies and strong policy expectations, the short - term futures are still strong [47]. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: Go long in the short - term, pay attention to the 36,000 yuan/ton pressure level, and go long after correction in the medium - to - long - term [48]. - Options: Wait and see [48]. - Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [48]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - Polysilicon Price: The spot price of polysilicon has generally increased this week. The transaction price range of n - type re - feeding material is 34,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,700 yuan/ton, a 0.87% increase. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon is 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 33,500 yuan/ton. However, due to the low downstream silicon wafer price, the willingness of crystal - pulling factories to buy at high prices is weak, and the transactions are limited [62]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices: Silicon wafer prices continue to weaken. The price of N - type 183 silicon wafers is 0.85 - 0.88 yuan/piece, 210R silicon wafers is 0.98 - 1 yuan/piece, and 210 silicon wafers is 1.18 - 1.2 yuan/piece. The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells is 0.265 - 0.27 yuan/W, a 5.96% decrease from early June. The transaction price range of N - type 183 TOPCon high - efficiency batteries is 0.225 - 0.23 yuan/W, and 210RN is 0.24 - 0.25 yuan/W [67]. - Component Prices: Component prices have remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm in centralized projects is 0.642 - 0.657 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm is 0.657 - 0.672 yuan/W. The price of TOPCon distributed 182mm components is 0.666 - 0.679 yuan/W, and distributed 210 components is 0.666 - 0.679 yuan/W [69]. - Component Fundamental Data: In July, the orders of photovoltaic component enterprises have not improved. Small - scale component manufacturers find it difficult to increase sales even by reducing prices. Component enterprises generally produce according to sales and adjust their operating rates flexibly. It is expected that the production schedule in July will be reduced to 45GW [77]. - Battery Cell Fundamental Data: The inventory of specialized battery manufacturers has decreased by 11.53GW, a 4.8GW decrease from last week. In July, as the component production schedule decreases, the production schedule of photovoltaic battery enterprises has been reduced to 54GW [82]. - Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data: This week, the silicon wafer inventory has decreased to 19.22GW, and the output is 13.04GW, remaining flat. The production schedule in July is about 52.2GW [87]. - Polysilicon Fundamental Data: This week, the polysilicon output has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has increased to 273,800 tons. In July, the polysilicon output is variable. The 60,000 - ton capacity of a factory in Xinjiang that resumed production in June may increase by about 4,000 tons in July, and a 150,000 - ton new production capacity in Qinghai will start production in July. Whether the 200,000 - ton capacity of a factory in Yunnan and 50,000 - ton capacity of a factory in Xinjiang will resume production is uncertain [90].