Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment, zinc prices may fluctuate. With continuous supply expansion and the downstream entering the off - season, domestic social inventories are expected to gradually accumulate, and zinc prices may face downward pressure [4]. - For trading strategies, one can consider short - selling zinc at high prices while being vigilant about macro risks, and temporarily hold off on arbitrage operations [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Industry Supply and Demand - Mine End: This week, the domestic zinc concentrate market remained stable. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price was flat at 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 1 US dollar/dry ton to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. In July, although some domestic mines were under maintenance, the impact on production was small. Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to increase, and zinc concentrate processing fees still have room for an upward adjustment [4]. - Smelting End: In July, domestic smelters had both maintenance and restart operations. Overall, domestic refined zinc production may increase by about 12,000 tons month - on - month. Recently, the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates have increased significantly, the profit margins of smelters have expanded, and with sufficient domestic zinc concentrate supply, the enthusiasm of smelters to start production has increased significantly. Refined zinc supply is expected to increase [4]. - Consumption: Against the backdrop of the traditional off - season for zinc consumption from July to August, terminal orders have decreased significantly, and the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to start production has declined. Coupled with the relatively high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is expected that the downstream procurement sentiment will be poor in the near future. However, the continuation of the domestic "trade - in" policy may still boost consumption to some extent. Attention should be paid to the consumption situations in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors [4]. - Inventory Data: As of July 3, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 82,400 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from June 26 and an increase of 1,800 tons from June 30. The LME zinc inventory (on July 4) was 112,300 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from June 27 [4]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: One can consider short - selling zinc in small quantities at high prices and be vigilant about macro risks. - Arbitrage: Temporarily hold off on operations [4]. Chapter 2: Market Data - Spot Premium: Information on the basis situation in major consumption regions and LME cash - 3M is provided [6]. - Absolute Price and Monthly Spread, and Trading Volume and Open Interest of Shanghai Zinc: Related data on these aspects are presented [12]. - Social Inventory: Information on social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region is included [14][15]. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data - Zinc Ore Supply - Production: From January to April, global zinc concentrate production was 393,680 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.07%. Among them, overseas zinc concentrate production was 274,180 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.23%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 119,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. In May 2025, SMM zinc concentrate production was 325,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.17% and a year - on - year increase of 3.17%. In June 2025, the expected zinc concentrate production was 342,600 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.42%. In June, the monthly raw material inventory of smelters was 448,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.41% and a year - on - year increase of 99.11%. This week, the zinc concentrate inventory at Lianyungang increased by 10,000 tons to 90,000 physical tons [25]. - Import: In May 2025, the imported zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative imported zinc concentrate was 2,204,000 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46%. The top three import source countries were Australia (22.10%), Peru (16.13%), and South Africa (10.49%). From June to July, the import window for zinc concentrates was basically closed, and although some previously locked - price imported ores flowed in, the volume of imported zinc concentrates was expected to decrease compared with the previous period [33]. - Total Domestic Ore Supply: In May 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc concentrates was about 546,200 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.74%. From January to May, the cumulative total supply was 2,390,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.99%. According to SMM data, in June 2025, the available days of inventory for refined zinc production enterprises were 29.7 days, an increase of 2 days month - on - month and 12.83 days more than the same period last year [36]. - Zinc Ore Processing Fees: In July, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates rose to 3,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,250 yuan/ton compared with December 2024. On July 4, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 1 US dollar/dry ton to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,088 yuan/ton, domestic smelters have a production loss of about 228 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue), and with by - product revenue, smelters have a profit of about 1,477 yuan/ton [39][40]. - Global Refined Zinc Production - In the first half of last year, the global zinc market was in surplus, but since July, it has turned into a shortage. In 2024, the annual refined zinc production was 1,362.02 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.01%. The annual demand was 1,364.78 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.32%. The annual refined zinc shortage was 27,600 tons. - From January to April 2025, global refined zinc production was 442,580 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10,550 tons or 2.33%. The main production cuts were concentrated in South Korea and Japan, mainly due to the reduction and suspension of production at South Korea's Seakpho smelter and Japan's Annaka smelter. - From January to April 2025, global refined zinc consumption was 427,470 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6,390 tons or 1.47%. The decrease in consumption was concentrated in the United States and Mexico, mainly due to geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties. - From January to April 2025, the global refined zinc cumulative surplus was 151,100 tons, and the surplus was gradually expanding [43]. - Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - Smelter Operation: From January to June, the average operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was about 88.4%, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 89.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; that of medium - scale enterprises was 93.8%, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; and that of small - scale enterprises was 71.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.54%. In January and February this year, the operating rate of domestic smelters was lower than the same period last year, mainly due to smelter losses and the Spring Festival holiday. Since March, after smelters turned profitable, the operating rate has increased significantly year - on - year. - Production: From January to June, domestic refined zinc production was 3.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.84%. In the first half of 2024, domestic smelters were profitable, and with relatively sufficient raw material inventory, domestic production was relatively stable. In the second half of 2024, due to ore shortages and reduced processing fees, smelters turned to losses, and the scale of production cuts continued to expand. This year, domestic smelters' production gradually increased after turning profitable in March, so the year - on - year increase in production in the first half of the year was not significant [46]. - Zinc Ingot Import: In May 2025, the imported refined zinc was 26,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons or 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. From January to May, the cumulative imported refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.66%. In May, the exported refined zinc was 1,400 tons, and the net imported refined zinc was 25,300 tons. The top three import countries in May were Kazakhstan (15,600 tons, 58.7%), Australia (3,600 tons, 13.56%), and Spain (2,800 tons, 10.57%). From June to July, the domestic refined zinc import window was basically closed. Although some previously locked - price imported zinc and duty - free imported zinc flowed in, the volume was expected to be significantly reduced compared with the previous period [48]. - Downstream Consumption - Related Data - Primary Processing: Information on the start - up situation and inventory of primary processing enterprises, including galvanizing, zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises, is provided [57][59]. - Real Estate Construction: Data on real estate development investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, and unsold area are presented, along with the seasonal data of the 100 - city land transaction premium rate and the daily transaction data of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities [62][64]. - Infrastructure Investment: Trends in major infrastructure investment sectors, including power, transportation, and water conservancy, are provided [71]. - Domestic Automobile: Data on automobile production, including traditional fuel vehicles and new - energy vehicles, and export seasonality are presented [75][76]. - Domestic White Goods: Data on the monthly production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines are provided [78]. - Raw Material Supply and Demand Summary Table: The table shows the production, net import volume, and total supply of zinc concentrates and refined zinc from January 2024 to May 2025, including year - on - year changes [56].
锌：宏观影响下，锌价反复运行
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-10 12:38