Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat, and the downward space of the futures price on the disk is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the contracts in August and September in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens. If the volume of culled chickens remains high, the upward space will be relatively large; if the volume of culled chickens fails to maintain, the contracts in August and September may be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production areas today is 2.58 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main sales areas is 2.79 yuan per catty, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The mainstream prices across the country are mostly stable today [6] - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, higher than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in June was 40.75 million, a month-on-month decrease of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7] - From June 27th, the national slaughter volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 18.41 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week. As of June 26th, the average slaughter age of culled chickens was 508 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of June 26th, the sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas across the country was 7,937 tons, a 5% increase from the previous week [8] - As of June 26th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.12 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.22 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous week [8] - As of June 26th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was -0.41 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.08 yuan per catty from the previous week. On June 20th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week [8] - Today, the price of culled chickens across the country has decreased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.57 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [8] 2. Trading Logic - The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat, and the downward space of the futures price on the disk is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the contracts in August and September in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens [9] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far-month August and September contracts when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is relatively high [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250710
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-10 12:37