生猪日报：出栏整体稳定，价格略有回落-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall spot price of live pigs showed a fluctuating trend. After the previous continuous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for selling increased, leading to a price decline. However, the overall decline space was limited as the market's resistance to low prices increased. The market supply improved in the short term, and the upward momentum of prices was restricted. The follow - up supply pressure was still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory, making it difficult for the spot price to continue rising [2]. - The live pig futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. After the previous rapid increase, the market's bullish sentiment declined, and the futures entered a high - level fluctuation state. It was expected to be affected by the weakening spot price. The short - term monthly spread was expected to be mainly volatile due to the lack of obvious driving factors [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Information - Price Comparison: The average price of live pigs on July 10, 2025, was 14.14 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous day. Most regions saw price declines, with only Hunan and Jiangxi having slight increases. The prices of sows remained unchanged at 1621 yuan, while the prices of piglets rose to 439 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan from the previous week [2]. - Profit Situation: The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan/head, an increase of 69.48 yuan compared to the previous day. The profit for purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head, an increase of 105.45 yuan [2]. - Supply and Demand: The slaughter volume was 132,166 heads, an increase of 89 heads from the previous day. The price difference between large and medium - sized pigs and standard pigs changed, with the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs increasing by 0.02 yuan [2]. Futures Information - Futures Price: The futures prices of LH01, LH03, LH05, LH09, and LH11 increased, while LH07 decreased. For example, LH01 rose from 13,675 yuan to 13,775 yuan, and LH07 fell from 13,960 yuan to 13,950 yuan [2]. - Contract Spread: The spread of LH7 - 9 decreased by 120 yuan, while LH9 - 1, LH9 - 11 increased by 10 yuan and 15 yuan respectively, and LH11 - 1 decreased by 5 yuan [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral Trading: It was mainly in a high - level volatile operation [6]. - Arbitrage: Conducted a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [6]. - Options: Adopted a wait - and - see strategy [6].