国投期货能源日报-20250710

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability, with a recommendation to wait and see) [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, similar to fuel oil) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a judgment of a moderately bullish trend for crude oil in the third quarter, but the upside space for Brent crude above $70 per barrel is limited. For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the unilateral and crack spreads are weakening. The asphalt fundamentals are weakening, and its upside space is restricted. LPG is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - Crude oil futures continued to be strong, with the SC08 contract rising 0.54%. Last week, the US EIA crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by 7.07 million barrels. Although OPEC+ is increasing production and the global oil inventory is accumulating, the peak - season demand for refined oil in the third quarter, the relatively small impact of macro - level tariffs, and the increased frequency of Houthi ship attacks in the Red Sea support the price. The report maintains a judgment of a moderately bullish trend for crude oil in the third quarter, but the upside space for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, crude oil led the rise in refined oil futures, with the strength order being SC>BU>LU>FU. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the demand for ship bunkering and deep - processing is weak, and the demand for power generation in the Middle East and North Africa in summer fails to boost it. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply benefit from the diversion effect due to the decline in coking profit has disappeared, and the demand lacks a clear driver, with the crack spread declining [2] Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory started to accumulate in late June. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase in cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The overall demand recovery is expected to be delayed. The asphalt price mainly follows the direction of crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit its upside space [3] LPG - The international market supply is generally loose, and the price is stable. The new maintenance last week led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH gross profit. The supply pressure continues in summer, and the upside power of the futures price is limited, so it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [4]