黑色金属日报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★, with a certain upward trend [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Coke: ★☆★, showing a certain upward trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon manganese: No rating provided - Silicon iron: ★☆★, showing a certain upward trend [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, low inventory and positive market sentiment may keep the futures prices strong in the short term, while the focus is on terminal demand and relevant policies at home and abroad [2] - Iron ore prices may remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of increased price fluctuations [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are mainly driven by the trend of thread steel and may have some upward momentum in the short term [4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices mainly follow the trend of thread steel and are expected to have some upward space [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, both apparent demand and output decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline slowly [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Demand and output declined, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [2] - Overall: Low inventory and high iron - water production result in little negative feedback pressure on the market. The focus is on the demand - bearing capacity in the off - season [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decreased significantly after the end of the quarterly volume rush, while domestic arrivals rebounded, and there is little pressure on port inventory accumulation in the short term [3] - Demand: Apparent demand for steel weakened slightly in the off - season, and there is still some pressure on iron - water production reduction [3] - Macro: High expectations for the upcoming important meeting and reduced external trade uncertainties have boosted market sentiment [3] Coke - Supply: Coking production has declined from the annual high, and overall inventory has continued to decrease [4] - Demand: Purchasing intentions of traders and steel mills have slightly improved [4] - Price: The price is mainly driven by the trend of thread steel and may have some upward momentum in the short term [4] Coking Coal - Supply: The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, and the closure of the Sino - Mongolian port during the Naadam Festival has improved the transaction of Mongolian coal [6] - Demand: Iron - water production remains high in the off - season, and the procurement is mainly on - demand [6] - Price: The price is mainly driven by the trend of thread steel and may have some upward momentum in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - Supply: After continuous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly output has begun to increase, and inventory on the balance sheet has started to rise [7] - Price: The price has broken through the 6750 resistance and is expected to have some upward space [7] Silicon Iron - Supply: Supply has continued to decline, and inventory on the balance sheet has decreased, but production - end inventory has started to accumulate [8] - Demand: Overall demand is fair, with stable export demand and increased production of magnesium [8] - Price: The price is mainly driven by the trend of thread steel, and the expectation of electricity price adjustment has enhanced the upward momentum [8]