国投期货农产品日报-20250710

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy (Positive Outlook): Beans (★★☆), Soybean Meal (★★★), Rapeseed Meal (★★☆), Rapeseed Oil (★★★) [1] - Sell (Negative Outlook): Palm Oil (★★★), Corn (★★★), Live Hogs (★★★), Eggs (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It assesses the current market conditions, factors influencing prices, and offers short - and long - term outlooks for each product. Short - term factors such as weather, policy, and trade uncertainties are emphasized, while long - term trends like bio - diesel development and supply - demand fundamentals are also considered [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybeans - Domestic soybeans have stopped falling and rebounded, with prices slightly fluctuating. Northeast China's weather is favorable for soybean growth this week, and policy - driven trading had good results. Future weather and policies need close attention. US soybean优良率 is 66%, in line with market expectations, and future US weather shows no major deviations. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and the Dalian soybean market is currently in a state of oscillation [2][3] Soybean Meal - US soybean conditions are normal, and the domestic oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains high, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. Brazilian premiums have risen significantly, and domestic oil mills' 9 - month shipping procurement progress has reached 70%. With many uncertainties in Sino - US trade and no bad weather in the US for now, the Dalian soybean meal market is expected to oscillate [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract has partially reduced positions, and prices have slightly corrected. The MPOB report shows that production meets expectations, but exports are lower, domestic consumption is higher, and ending stocks are higher than expected. In the third quarter, overseas palm oil is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle. In the long run, bio - diesel development can support vegetable oil prices, so a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - There is still a risk of local dryness in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area, but recent rainfall has alleviated some concerns. CFTG funds hold a net long position in ICE rapeseed, which is at a historical high, and there is a risk of price pressure if funds reduce their positions. The domestic rapeseed oil market is weak, affected by the poor export performance of palm oil in the MPOB report. The rapeseed - related futures prices are under short - term pressure [6] Corn - The Dalian corn market is oscillating. Since July, due to the impact of CNGC auctions, the supply has increased and prices have declined, affecting market expectations. The supply from some grass - roots traders has increased, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong and Northeast China have generally fallen. The corn futures market is likely to continue oscillating [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures have increased in positions and prices, with the main contract hitting a new high. However, the spot price has weakened slightly, and the basis has narrowed significantly. The long - term production capacity pressure remains as the inventory of breeding sows increased in June, indicating a downward pressure on hog prices in the medium - to - long - term [8] Eggs - Egg futures have increased in positions and decreased in price, hitting a new low. The spot price is stable. July is a turning point between the off - season and peak season for egg prices, but this year's peak season may start later due to the late Mid - Autumn Festival. The 8 - month futures contract still has a premium of nearly a thousand yuan over the spot. In the long run, the long - term egg price has not bottomed out due to insufficient capacity reduction [9]