财富管理月报2025年6月-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Overweight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Underweight [37] - Japanese stocks - Equal - weight [38] - Indian market - Overweight [39] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, different financial markets showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade relations. Stock markets had varying performances, with some reaching new highs. Bond markets were affected by economic and geopolitical events. The foreign exchange market was driven by interest rate expectations and trade policies. Commodity prices fluctuated due to supply - demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions. The report also provided investment ratings and reasons for different markets and selected funds based on specific criteria [34][56][64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Data - Stock Markets: In June 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a monthly increase of 6.27% and a YTD increase of 7.93%, while the European Stoxx 50 index decreased by 1.18% monthly but had an 8.32% YTD increase. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.36% in June and 20.00% YTD [1] - Bond Markets: The Bloomberg US Corporate High - Yield Bond Index increased 1.84% monthly and 4.57% YTD, while the Bloomberg European Aggregate Total Return Index decreased 0.09% monthly and had a 0.84% YTD increase [2] - Commodity Markets: Gold prices (in dollars per ounce) increased 0.42% monthly and 25.86% YTD, and New York crude oil futures (in dollars per barrel) increased 7.11% monthly but decreased 9.22% YTD [4] - Foreign Exchange Markets: The US dollar index decreased 2.47% monthly and 10.70% YTD, while the euro/dollar increased 3.88% monthly and 13.84% YTD [5] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - Employment: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. However, the growth mainly came from the government sector, and the actual employment pressure remained [9] - Inflation: In May, the US CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased 2.8% year - on - year. Some categories affected by import tariffs had significant price increases [11] - Retail Sales: In May, US retail sales decreased 0.9% month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in automobile and gasoline sales [16] - Services PMI: In June, the US ISM Services PMI was 50.8, back in the expansion zone, while the S&P Global Services PMI was 52.9, showing differences between SMEs and large enterprises [18] Chinese Macroeconomy - Consumption: In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased 6.4% year - on - year, with significant growth in some categories due to promotional activities and policies [21] - Real Estate: In May, housing prices in Chinese cities showed a pattern of month - on - month decline and year - on - year narrowing of the decline [21] - CPI and PPI: In May, China's CPI decreased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.3% year - on - year, with different trends in different industries [21][23] - Imports and Exports: In May, China's exports increased 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year, with different performances in trade with different regions [23] - PMI: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, indicating continued improvement in the economic climate [23] Central Bank Policies - Canada: On June 4, the Bank of Canada kept the key interest rate at 2.75%, waiting for clearer signals on trade conflicts [25] - Europe: On June 5, the European Central Bank cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, further releasing a loose monetary policy signal [25] - Japan: On June 17, the Bank of Japan kept the target interest rate at 0.5% and planned to reduce the scale of Japanese government bond purchases [25] - US: On June 18, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, with more officials cautious about interest rate cuts [27] - UK: On June 19, the Bank of England kept the policy rate at 4.25%, with more members worried about economic weakness [27] - Switzerland: On June 19, the Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0%, dealing with low inflation pressure [27] 3. Market Review and Outlook Stock Markets - US Stocks: In June, US stocks generally rose, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high. The reasons for the upgrade to overweight include trade friction mitigation, positive economic data, low inflation, and the irreplaceability of US stocks [34] - European Stocks: In June, European stocks were sluggish, but the market expected a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include government fiscal spending, central bank interest rate cuts, and the attractiveness of European stocks as a diversification alternative [35] - Chinese A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in June. The reasons for the upgrade to equal - weight include progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, signs of economic bottoming, low capital costs, and expectations for the Politburo meeting [36] - Hong Kong Stocks: The Hang Seng Index exceeded 24,000 in June, but the Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed. The reasons for the downgrade to underweight include intensified competition in the Internet industry, a slowdown in new consumption, and a shortage of high - quality assets [37] - Japanese Stocks: The Nikkei 225 index exceeded 40,000 in June. The reasons for maintaining the equal - weight rating include the stalemate in US - Japan trade negotiations, corporate governance optimization, and Japan's exit from deflation [38] - Indian Market: The Indian stock market hit a new high in June. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include high - speed economic growth, the potential to benefit from manufacturing transfer, and a reasonable valuation considering growth [39] Bond Markets - Primary Market: In June 2025, 89 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds, including 46 US dollar bonds and 26 offshore RMB bonds. The issuance scale of US dollar bonds recovered, and the issuance of dim - sum bonds increased [44] - Secondary Market: As of June 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index rose 0.89%, and the high - yield bond index rose 1.11% [47] Foreign Exchange Market - In June, the US dollar index declined for the sixth consecutive month, and the euro was strong. The RMB rose against the US dollar but had a lower increase compared to other major currencies [61] Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated at a high level, with short - term adjustment needs but long - term support. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, with a significant discount indicating concerns about supply surplus. Iron ore prices dropped due to the weak real estate market and supply - side reform expectations [64] 4. Selected Funds - The report selected funds based on different criteria for different types of funds, including historical performance, expense ratio, and risk. For example, the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund was selected as a money - market fund, and the Invesco Global High - Grade Corporate Bond Fund USD Acc was selected as an investment - grade bond fund [66]