地方政府债供给及交易跟踪：地方债供给节奏加速

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and trading of local government bonds, including an overview of the stock market, the rhythm of primary supply, and the characteristics of secondary trading. It details the scale, distribution, and trends of local government bond issuance and trading, as well as the participation of different investor groups. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of July 4, 2025, the stock size of local government bonds reached 51.9 trillion yuan, indicating continuous market expansion [3][11]. - Among the outstanding local bonds, the proportion of new special bonds exceeded 43%, and the proportion of refinancing special bonds was 21% [3][11]. - In terms of the investment direction of special bonds, shantytown renovation, park and new - area construction, and rural revitalization were the major investment fields, with stock balances of 1.97 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [3][11]. - As of July 4, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock size, with 3.42 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.15 trillion yuan respectively. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Anhui also had local bond stocks of over 2 trillion yuan [3][11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 175.91 million yuan were issued, including 29.54 million yuan of new special bonds and 0.7 million yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project income" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment fields of special bond funds [4][18]. - As of July 10, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in July had reached 286.32 million yuan, accounting for 7.32% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [4][18]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance proportion of 7 - 10 - year local bonds was relatively high last week, reaching 49.75%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for major terms were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 17.84BP, while the spread of 20 - year local bonds over the same - term treasury bonds slightly widened to 14.9BP [4][28]. - From the perspective of new bond subscription, the upper limit of the bid rate last week significantly rebounded compared with two weeks ago, indicating a warming of primary bidding sentiment [4][28]. - Last week, two provinces had new issuances. Inner Mongolia issued 689 million yuan of local bonds this month, mainly with terms of 7 - 10 years; Ningxia issued 1.0703 billion yuan, with terms concentrated within 7 years. The average issuance rates were both below 2% [4][35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - As of July 4, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.77%, and the spread over the same - term treasury bonds was 12.67BP, at the 18% quantile in the past 24 years. The price - difference quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 38% and 53% respectively [5][36]. - Last week, the turnover rates of local bonds for major terms increased slightly. The highest weekly turnover rate was for bonds over 10 years, with a reading of 1.14%. In terms of regions, Guangdong had the most trading volumes last week, with 50 transactions. The average trading term of local bonds last week was 17.3 years, and the average yield was 1.91% [5][41]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds reaching 3.0119 billion yuan, and the purchase proportion of bonds over 20 - 30 years reaching 81.92% [5][47].