格林大华期货早盘提示-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish Bias) [1] Report's Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with positive factors such as the expected meeting between the US Commerce Secretary and Chinese officials, the extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in the US, strong US non - farm payroll data in June, expected Fed rate cuts in September and acceleration in 2026, expansion in manufacturing PMIs in the US and China, measures to boost corporate performance in China, multiple rate cuts by the European Central Bank, military expansion and industrial recovery in Germany [1] Summary by Related Information Important News - US President Trump issued a second wave of tariff letters to eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil being the highest since the new reciprocal tariffs were announced [1] - The US stock market rebounded strongly led by technology stocks, but the Fear and Greed Index signaled "extreme greed", indicating high market risk sentiment [1] - Morgan Stanley expects no rate cuts in 2025 due to inflation risks and tariffs, while Citi expects a rate - cut cycle to start in September and continue until the policy rate drops to 3 - 3.25% [1] - Baillie Gifford believes the prospects of Chinese tech giants depend more on domestic consumer sentiment than tariff policies, as US - bound exports are less than one - tenth of China's retail sales [1] - The US Treasury auctioned $39 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds with a winning yield of 4.362%, lower than 4.421% in June [1] - Goldman Sachs found that the probability of the US dollar depreciating when the US stock market falls is more than twice as high as in the past decade, due to factors like US policy uncertainty, global diversified investment, and fiscal risks [1] - Brazilian President Lula called an emergency meeting and warned of a response to any unilateral tariff hikes based on Brazil's economic reciprocity law [1] Global Economic Logic - The US Commerce Secretary is expected to meet Chinese officials in early August, and the US extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1st [1] - US non - farm payroll data in June was significantly better than expected, and the market anticipates Fed rate cuts in September and acceleration in 2026 [1] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand, and China's PMI production index continued to expand while the new order index resumed expansion [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of cut - throat competition is expected to boost listed company performance [1] - The European Central Bank has cut rates 8 times, Germany is expanding its military by 30%, and German industry shows signs of recovery with a 1.2% month - on - month increase in industrial output in May [1]