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生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, but the demand side also provides certain support, making it difficult for pig prices to rise or fall significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On July 10, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 447 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of live pigs have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting. The main contract (LH2509) added 2,765 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots, a maximum price of 14,445 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,205 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,375 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season. The fat - to - standard pig price difference may oscillate and adjust. The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand during the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3] Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current relationship between weight reduction and stable pig prices in the spot market indicates that demand supports pig prices, and it is also difficult for pig prices to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] Market Overview - On July 10, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.82 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg or 1.13%. The price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.44 yuan/kg. Among futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, 09, and 11 contracts all increased, with increases of 0.73%, 0.27%, 0.53%, 0.77%, and 0.7% respectively, while the 07 contract decreased by 0.07% [6] Key Data Tracking - The content includes historical data on national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, and futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, as well as the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [7][9][10]