股市温和上?，债市情绪偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "oscillation" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures continued their moderate upward trend, influenced by factors such as expectations of real - estate policy implementation, strengthened anti - involution and supply - side expectations, and the high - dividend characteristics of banks and insurance attracting long - term funds. The short - term upside is related to the sustainability of the large - finance sector [6]. - Stock index options maintained a cautious outlook. Although the underlying assets performed strongly, the market did not see large - scale chasing trades, and investor sentiment became more cautious. The recommended operation is to focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. - Treasury bond futures had weak sentiment. The market was pressured by the strong performance of the equity market and the tightening of the capital market. With potential capital fluctuations in the future, the market should be dealt with from an oscillation perspective [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - Performance Data: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 12.82 points, - 11.53 points, - 24.25 points, and - 31.37 points respectively, with month - on - month changes of 1.58 points, - 1.41 points, - 0.76 points, and 0.30 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts were 18.0 points, 3.4 points, 54.4 points, and 71.2 points, with month - on - month changes of 2.8 points, - 2.6 points, 1.0 points, and 1.4 points. The total open interest changes were 11835 lots, 9632 lots, 5291 lots, and 11313 lots [6]. - Logic: The market continued its upward trend, with real estate, insurance, coal, and oil and gas leading the gains. The short - term upside depends on the large - finance sector [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and see [6]. Stock Index Options - Logic: The underlying assets were strong, but the trading volume changed little, and the volatility increased slightly. Investor sentiment became more cautious. [6] - Operation Suggestion: Focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - Performance Data: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts were 77570 lots, 65698 lots, 42333 lots, and 107326 lots respectively, with daily changes of 18031 lots, 19470 lots, 7862 lots, and 33059 lots. The open interests were 202427 lots, 158575 lots, 115251 lots, and 119369 lots, with daily changes of - 1254 lots, 1095 lots, - 144 lots, and 418 lots. The spreads between current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6][7]. - Logic: The market declined due to the strong equity market and tightened capital. Future capital fluctuations need attention, but there may be value in entering the market after the recent adjustment [7]. - Operation Suggestion: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillation view. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium - term has higher odds [7] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On July 7, 2025, the annual retail sales growth rate in the Eurozone in May was 1.8%, with a previous value of 2.3% and a forecast of 1.2% [9]. - On July 9, 2025, China's CPI annual rate in June was 0.1%, with a previous value of - 0.1% and a forecast of 0%; the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%, with a previous value of - 3.3% and a forecast of - 3.2% [9] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The latest Fed meeting minutes showed that some participants were willing to consider lowering the policy interest rate if data met expectations, while others thought the federal funds rate might not be lowered this year [9]. - China has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals such as antimony and gallium, and will also review and approve legal export license applications [10] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [11][15][27]