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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Financial Markets: The Fed's internal divergence on the interest - rate cut path is significant. The market is closely watching the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and the prices of gold, the US dollar index, and other financial products are affected by the market's expectations of the Fed's policies and actual economic data [15][20]. - Stock Index Futures: The real estate sector was boosted by news on July 10, but the policy content is still uncertain. The real estate market needs coordinated efforts on both the supply and demand sides to stabilize. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [24][25]. - Bond Market: The re - balance of fundamentals and risk appetite is the core reason for the recent strength of the stock market and the weakness of the bond market. However, the sustainability of the current trading is not strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of laying out medium - term long positions on dips [30]. - Commodity Markets: Different commodities have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply of natural gas has changed from short - supply to balance, and high prices are no longer sustainable; the soybean market is affected by production and export data; the copper market is affected by tariff policies [7][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. Gold prices are oscillating and approaching the 60 - day moving average [14][15]. - Investment Advice: Gold prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and tariff progress [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: The US and the EU have not reached a trade agreement, and the Fed is expected to manage the balance - sheet reduction [17][20]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: Policies to support employment and boost consumption have been introduced. The real estate sector rose on July 10 [22][24]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts, and the US stock market is affected by economic resilience and interest - rate cut expectations, but there are risks of correction [26][28]. - Investment Advice: Be aware of the risk of correction in the US stock market [28]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The central bank conducted a 900 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The balance of fundamentals and risk appetite affects the stock and bond markets [30]. - Investment Advice: Long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: Brazil's soybean production forecast remains unchanged, and exports are expected to decline in July. The USDA's weekly export sales report met expectations [32][33][34]. - Investment Advice: The prices of domestic and foreign futures are expected to oscillate temporarily. Pay attention to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and Sino - US relations [34]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in early July, and the inventory increased in June. The market is affected by supply and demand [35][36]. - Investment Advice: The report has a limited negative impact on the market. The price of palm oil is expected to oscillate in the third quarter, and it is advisable to allocate long positions on dips [37]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: The Philippines and Pakistan have introduced policies to ensure sugar supply. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June is expected to decline [38][39][40]. - Investment Advice: The domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the quotation of processed sugar and the resistance level of 5900 yuan [41][42]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: China's automobile production and sales increased in the first half of the year, and the inventory of steel products decreased slightly [43][44]. - Investment Advice: The steel market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a hedging strategy on rallies [45]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: Indonesia's coal exports decreased in the first five months of 2025. High - temperature weather supports coal prices [46]. - Investment Advice: Coal prices are expected to remain stable in July [46]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: China has made breakthroughs in ore exploration in the first half of 2025, and iron ore prices have rebounded with the market sentiment [47][48]. - Investment Advice: Do not chase the high price. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [48][49]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: The consumption of corn and corn starch in starch - sugar products has changed, and the market demand is not good [50]. - Investment Advice: The inventory cycle of starch changes quickly, and there is high uncertainty in the future [50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The inventory of corn processing enterprises has increased, and the market sentiment is weak, but the price remains stable under the influence of the macro - environment [51][52]. - Investment Advice: New - crop short positions can be lightly entered in advance, and continue to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [53]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: Trump plans to impose a 50% import tariff on copper, including semi - finished products. The LME inventory is an important observation indicator [54][57]. - Investment Advice: Shanghai copper is expected to be under pressure at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The price limit and margin standards of polysilicon futures have been adjusted, and the price of silicon wafers has increased [58]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see, as the market needs to observe whether the increased prices can be transacted [59]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: The inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly on July 10. The production in different regions is expected to change [60]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies and manage positions on the left side [61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: The LME lead spread is at a discount, a lead smelter has resumed production, and the social inventory has increased [62][63][64]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and the Sell Put opportunity below. Consider the internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunity [64]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME zinc spread is at a premium, the zinc mine tender price has been released, and the inventory has increased [65][66]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see in the short term. Manage positions for existing short positions and consider the opportunity of mid - term positive arbitrage [67]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Indonesia's nickel production in the first half of 2025 is far from the quota, and the supply - demand pressure of nickel is still large [68][69]. - Investment Advice: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range at a low level in the short term. Consider the opportunity of short - selling on rallies in the medium term [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: China's power - battery loading volume increased in the first half of 2025. The market focus is on the demand side [71][72]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive arbitrage. Avoid short positions for now [72]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - News: The weekly production of liquefied petroleum gas decreased, and the inventory increased [73][74]. - Investment Advice: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - News: The US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week, and the market supply - demand situation has changed [76]. - Investment Advice: The Nymex natural gas price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the supply and demand have changed [78]. - Investment Advice: It is difficult for the price to continue rising after the basis convergence [78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - News: The price of imported wood pulp has shown a rising trend, and the futures price has also increased [79]. - Investment Advice: The upward space of pulp prices is limited due to the unchanged supply - demand situation [79]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC powder has increased, but the inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing [80][81]. - Investment Advice: The upward space of PVC prices is limited [81]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - News: The production and capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased slightly this week [82]. - Investment Advice: Wait for the valuation of pure benzene to converge before allocating far - month contracts [83]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - News: The downstream start - up rate of PTA has decreased, and the demand is weak in the off - season [84][85]. - Investment Advice: PTA prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [85]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - News: The export price of bottle chips has been adjusted, and the factory will implement production cuts in July [86][87]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee of bottle chips by rolling on dips [87]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight for 2025 has been announced, which will affect the green certificate market [88]. - Investment Advice: The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [89]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - News: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased, and the market is oscillating at a low level [90]. - Investment Advice: Maintain the view of short - selling on rallies in the medium term [90]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - News: The inventory of float glass manufacturers has decreased slightly, and the price has increased [91][92]. - Investment Advice: Consider the long - glass and short - soda - ash cross - variety arbitrage strategy [92]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - News: MSC has adjusted its shipping services, and the spot market is mixed [93][94]. - Investment Advice: The container freight rate index is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [94].