五矿期货农产品早报-20250711

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. The overall situation is complex, with both upward and downward pressures. The domestic bean meal market is also multi - faceted, with a combination of low valuation, high short - term supply, and cost support [2][4]. - The palm oil market shows mixed trends in production, exports, and inventory. The overall situation of the global vegetable oil market is also complex, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [6][8]. - The sugar market is expected to face a downward trend in the future due to the increase in import supply [11]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [14]. - The egg market's price is expected to show a short - term stable and slightly upward trend, with a more complex medium - term situation [18]. - The pig market is expected to have limited downward space in the short term but faces supply and hedging pressures in the medium term [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - Market Situation: U.S. soybeans are under pressure due to good weather and potential trade - war impacts on exports, but are supported by low valuation, good old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies. Domestic bean meal has high mill operation rates, good sales, and a tendency to accumulate inventory. The import cost of soybeans is temporarily stable [2]. - Trading Strategy: Given the multi - faceted situation of the domestic bean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4]. Vegetable Oils - Important Information: Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 10 days of June are expected to increase, but overall exports, production, and inventory show different trends. The total inventory of the three major domestic vegetable oils is increasing. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production decreased slightly in June, but exports were lower than expected, and inventory increased slightly. The EPA policy is positive for the vegetable oil market, but there are still negative factors [6]. - Trading Strategy: The vegetable oil market is expected to be volatile. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, the origin may maintain stable inventory. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors such as high - level annual production expectations and weak edible demand in major demand countries [8]. Sugar - Key Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded on Thursday. The predicted sugar production and cane crushing volume in the second half of June in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year due to rainfall [10]. - Trading Strategy: As the import profit window is currently at its best in the past five years, the supply of imported sugar is likely to increase in the second half of the year, and the sugar price is expected to continue to decline [11]. Cotton - Key Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose slightly on Thursday. Trump postponed the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" to August 1 [13]. - Trading Strategy: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the current basis is not conducive to downstream consumption, and the potential increase in import quotas is a negative factor. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile, waiting for new driving factors [14]. Eggs - Spot Information: The national egg price was mostly stable on the previous day, with a slight increase in the average price of the main production areas. The supply is stable, the downstream digestion speed is slightly faster, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the egg price will mostly rise today [16]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the spot price has limited upward and downward space, and the peak - season contracts are expected to be relatively strong. In the medium term, as the spot price increase is gradually realized, the focus will return to supply and the relatively large premium of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations in the short term, and wait for a rebound to short in the medium - term post - festival contracts [18]. Pigs - Spot Information: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - falling on the previous day. The supply in the northern market is relatively abundant, and the price may fall, while the southern market may mostly maintain stable prices. It is expected that the pig price will be stable [20]. - Trading Strategy: Since late June, the spot price has rebounded significantly, and the short - term downward space of the futures price is limited. However, in the medium term, attention should be paid to supply postponement and hedging pressure [21].