冠通期货资讯早间报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global markets, including trends in international and domestic futures, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and financial market conditions across various regions. It also provides upcoming economic data release schedules and event calendars. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International oil prices weakened. The U.S. crude oil main contract fell 2.21% to $66.87 per barrel, and Brent crude main contract dropped 1.91% to $68.85 per barrel due to concerns about global demand and an unexpected increase in U.S. EIA crude inventories [2][47]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures increased 0.36% to $3333.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures climbed 2.72% to $37.63 per ounce, supported by inflation concerns and central bank gold purchases [2][49]. - Most London base metals closed higher. LME nickel rose 2.04% to $15285.00 per ton, LME zinc increased 1.26% to $2777.00 per ton, and LME copper edged up 0.53% to $9682.00 per ton, with copper prices in a volatile trend [2][49]. - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose. Coking coal and glass rose over 2%, while fuel oil dropped over 1% [2]. - Most Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures closed higher. Soybean futures increased 0.67% to 1014 cents per bushel, corn futures rose 0.12% to 416.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures climbed 1.28% to 554.5 cents per bushel [3]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - On July 10, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Kuala Lumpur to exchange views on the Iran nuclear issue [6]. - On July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper, which China opposes [6]. - The U.S. and China are maintaining close communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels [7]. - Fed official Musalem said the full impact of tariffs may be felt later this year or early next year [8]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly believes there may be two rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be milder than expected [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of July 10, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory reached 186.34 million tons, up 5.39 million tons or 2.98% from last Thursday, approaching the historical high [11]. - As of July 10, the national float - glass sample enterprises' total inventory was 67.102 million heavy boxes, down 1.983 million heavy boxes or 2.87%, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low [13]. - In May 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber exports decreased 29.3% year - on - year to 35,939 tons, and production decreased 12.2% year - on - year to 22,494 tons [13]. - Some photovoltaic glass enterprises plan cold - repairs in July and August, with an estimated reduction of nearly 2000 tons per day in July and an additional 2400 tons per day in August [14]. - As of the week of July 9, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 1.328 million barrels to a 29 - week high of 24.708 million barrels [15]. - OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years but raised the long - term forecast. Global oil demand is expected to reach 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026 and 111.6 million barrels per day in 2029 [15]. - OPEC + is discussing pausing further production increases after the next monthly increase in September [15]. - By July 1, 2028, the European market will stop importing Russian and Belarusian fertilizers due to EU tariff policies [15]. Metal Futures - Starting from July 14 settlement, the daily price limit of polysilicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, and the speculative trading margin standard to 11%, and the hedging trading margin standard to 10% [18][50]. - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1, 2025 [19][40]. - In June 2025, the domestic polysilicon enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 35.5%, up 1.5% from May, and is expected to reach 39.3% in July [19]. - BMI expects global copper production to grow at an average annual rate of 2.9% from 2025 to 2034, reaching 30.9 million tons in 2034 [19]. - As of July 10, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 551,000 tons, down 1000 tons from last week [19]. - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's operating capacity utilization rate was 79.92%, down 0.05 percentage points from last week [20]. Black - Series Futures - Coal mines affected by safety and environmental inspections are resuming production. The utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines reached 85.5% this week, up 1.7% [22]. - Shanxi steel mills have received a verbal notice of crude steel production restrictions, aiming for a nearly 6 - million - ton reduction in annual production [22]. - As of the week of July 10, rebar production, social inventory, and apparent demand decreased, while factory inventory increased [22]. - Shanxi Meijin Iron and Steel plans to overhaul a 1080m³ blast furnace on July 15, affecting about 3000 tons of hot - metal production daily [23]. Agricultural Futures - In 2025, the national summer grain sowing area was 26.5784 million hectares, down 0.1% from 2024 [25]. - In June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased 10.52% month - on - month, production dropped 4.48% month - on - month, and inventory increased 2.41% month - on - month [25]. - Different institutions' data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10 show mixed trends [25][27]. - CONAB predicts that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production will reach 169.4879 million tons, and corn production will be 131.974 million tons [27]. - U.S. soybean and corn export net sales increased in the latest week [27]. - As of July 8, about 9% of U.S. soybean - growing areas and 12% of U.S. corn - growing areas were affected by drought [27]. - Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association expects July soybean exports to reach 11.93 million tons, up 24.27% year - on - year [28]. - High - temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang may affect wheat growth and harvest [29]. - As of the week of July 6, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased 72.1% to 48,400 tons [29]. - As of July 3, the number of unpriced sell and buy orders for U.S. cotton ON - call increased [29]. Financial Market Financial - On Thursday, A - shares rose, with real - estate stocks surging and bank stocks hitting new highs. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to 3509.68 points [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.57% to 24028.37 points, with financial and real - estate stocks rising and gold stocks falling [32]. - As of July 10 at 12:00, 129 out of 147 A - share listed companies expected to be profitable in the first half of the year [32]. - Chen Guangming and Howard Marks believe in China's long - term economic competitiveness and the potential of the capital market [32]. - This year, active equity funds have outperformed passive index funds, with the best - performing active equity fund's return nearly 100% [33]. - As of July 10, 206 Hong Kong - listed companies have launched share - repurchase plans, involving HK$100.7 billion [35]. - Zhiyuan Robot denies the rumor of a Hong Kong IPO [36]. Industry - In 2025, the national summer grain output reached 299.48 billion jin, with wheat production at 276.32 billion jin, achieving stable production [37]. - In June, China's auto production and sales increased 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively, and new - energy vehicle production and sales increased 26.4% and 26.7% year - on - year respectively [37]. - As of July 9, China's express delivery volume exceeded 100 billion pieces, 35 days earlier than in 2024 [37]. - In the first half of the year, the transfer fee of residential land in 300 cities increased 27.5% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased 5.5% [37]. - Wuxi's Binhu District introduced housing subsidies for football - related people, and at least 10 real - estate projects have participated [38]. Overseas - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, 2025 [40]. - Fed Governor Waller said the Fed could consider a rate cut in July and adjust its asset holdings [40]. - Fed Daly believes there may be two rate cuts this year, and tariffs may not lead to significant price increases [40]. - Fed Musalem said tariffs may increase inflation expectations, and a weaker dollar may further push up inflation [40]. - The U.S. Department of Defense will invest $400 million in MP Materials, and the company has received $1 billion in financing commitments [41]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell for the fourth consecutive week to 227,000, a two - month low [42]. - The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% and may cut rates in the next three months [42]. - The Bank of Japan maintained its economic assessment of Japan, and U.S. tariffs' impact on exports is currently limited [44]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose slightly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.43%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.27%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.09%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs [45]. - European stocks had mixed results. The German DAX Index fell 0.38%, the French CAC40 Index rose 0.3%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 1.23% [45]. - Most Asia - Pacific stocks rose. The South Korean Composite Index rose 1.58% to 3183.23 points, hitting a four - year high [46]. - Delta Air Lines re - issued its full - year profit forecast, expecting an adjusted EPS of $5.25 - $6.25 [46]. Commodities - International oil prices declined due to demand concerns and inventory increases [47]. - International precious metal futures advanced, supported by inflation and central bank purchases [49]. - London base metals mostly rose, with copper prices volatile [49]. - Polysilicon futures contract trading rules will be adjusted on July 14 [18][50]. - OPEC adjusted its oil demand forecast and OPEC + may pause production increases [15][50]. Bonds - Domestic inter - bank bond yields rose, and bond futures fell. The central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan [51]. - Japan's 20 - year government bond auction showed weak investor demand [51]. - U.S. Treasury yields increased as initial jobless claims fell [51][52]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose on Thursday, and the RMB is expected to appreciate to 7 per U.S. dollar by next mid - year [53]. - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.10%, and non - U.S. currencies showed mixed performance [53]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data such as Germany's June wholesale price index, UK's May GDP, etc., will be released at specific times [55]. - Events including China's central bank's reverse - repurchase maturity, IEA's monthly oil market report release, and European Central Bank officials' speeches are scheduled [57].