聚丙烯风险管理日报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - Recently, the polyolefin market has been driven up by macro sentiment and coking coal prices. However, the short - term upward space for PP is relatively limited due to expected supply increases [2]. - The reasons for limited upward space of PP are new device commissioning and reduced device maintenance, which increase supply pressure [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors for PP. Positive factors include favorable macro sentiment, neutral inventory levels, and firm spot prices, while negative factors are new device commissioning and the return of marginal devices [2][3] Summaries by Related Content Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 13.38%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 30.7% [1] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short 25% of PP2509 futures to lock in profits and offset production costs, and sell 50% of PP2509C7200 call options to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if prices rise [1] Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there is a need to purchase based on orders, buy 50% of PP2509 futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, and sell 75% of PP2509P7100 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if prices fall [1] Core Contradictions - In the context of macro - driven market upswing, the upward space for PP is limited. The supply of PP is expected to increase significantly. New devices are being commissioned, and device maintenance has decreased, leading to increased supply pressure [2] Positive Factors - Favorable macro sentiment, neutral inventory levels, and relatively firm spot prices [2] Negative Factors - Multiple devices will be commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH device profits have recovered, and marginal devices are gradually resuming production [3] Market Data - The table shows various data such as polypropylene basis, contract prices, regional price differences, upstream prices, and processing profits [6]