国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250711

Report Overview - Date: July 11, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm Oil: Macro sentiment drives up prices, but limited by fundamentals [2] - Soybean Oil: Lack of weather speculation on US soybeans, lacking driving force [2] - Soybean Meal: Waiting for USDA report, with rebound and oscillation [2] - Soybean: Stable spot prices, oscillating futures prices [2] - Corn: Oscillating adjustment [2] - Cotton: Tight old - crop inventory expectations continue to support futures prices [2] - Eggs: Peak season approaching, focus on expectation differences [2] - Hogs: Weakening spot sentiment, divergence between futures and spot [2] - Peanuts: Support at the lower level [2] Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures prices showed different changes, with palm oil closing at 8,638 yuan/ton (down 0.46% during the day) and soybean oil at 7,944 yuan/ton (up 0.30% during the day). Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 30 yuan/ton, while soybean oil in Guangdong remained unchanged [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Malaysian palm oil export data from different institutions showed mixed trends. About 9% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought as of July 8. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to reach 1.694879 billion tons, a 14.7% year - on - year increase [6][8]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a weak downward trend [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking: DCE soybean futures prices decreased slightly, while DCE soybean meal futures prices increased. Spot prices of soybean meal in Shandong were in the range of 2800 - 2880 yuan/ton, with some price adjustments [14]. - Macro and Industry News: On July 10, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to good export sales and short - covering. Analysts expect the US government to raise the ending inventory forecast of US soybeans in 2024/25 and 2025/26 [16]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [16] Corn - Fundamental Tracking: Corn futures prices showed minor fluctuations. Important spot prices such as in Jinzhou and Guangdong Shekou remained stable. Trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [18]. - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn port prices decreased, while Guangdong Shekou prices remained flat. Corn prices in Northeast and North China mostly declined [19]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22] Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: Zhengzhou cotton and ICE US cotton futures prices had small changes. Spot prices of cotton in different regions increased slightly. Trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [25]. - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the cotton yarn market had insufficient orders. ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly, waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report [26][27]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [28] Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: Egg futures prices decreased. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. Feed prices and related livestock prices also had certain changes [31]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [31] Hogs - Fundamental Tracking: Spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with a decline in Henan. Futures prices of different contracts increased. Trading volume and open interest of some contracts increased [34]. - Market Logic: The futures market has entered the expectation trading stage. The expected state reserve purchase has driven the formation of a policy bottom sentiment. Attention should be paid to the spot performance in the future. The short - term support and pressure levels of the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [36]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [35] Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: Spot prices of peanuts in different regions had some adjustments. Futures prices of some contracts increased. Trading volume and open interest of some contracts decreased [38]. - Spot Market Focus: Peanut production areas had low inventory and limited trading volume, with prices generally stable or slightly weak [39]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [40]