聚乙烯风险管理日报-20250711

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7100 - 7500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 34.0% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for inventory management: - Short L2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 7350 - 7450 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits [2] - Sell L2509C7400 call options at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if prices rise [2] Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and aiming to lock in costs: - Buy L2509 futures at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 7100 - 7200 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs [2] - Sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 40 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the buying price if prices fall [2] 3. Core Views - Recently, the polyolefin market has been driven up by macro - sentiment and coking coal prices. From a fundamental perspective, PE also has upward momentum. Supply - side pressure has been marginally relieved, and demand has been higher than expected. If the high - demand growth rate continues in the second half of the year, PE supply and demand will be in a tight - balance state. Currently, the improvement in macro - sentiment and fundamentals is in resonance, giving PE short - term upward momentum [3] 4. Supply - Side Factors Positive Factors - PE plants are in a seasonal maintenance period, and the concentrated maintenance season is expected to last until mid - July [3] - Some full - density plants have switched production from LLDPE to HDPE due to the high HDPE - LLDPE price spread. Although HDPE supply has increased, its low inventory can absorb the additional supply, and LLDPE supply has decreased marginally [3] - The Iran - Israel conflict may lead to a slight reduction in PE imports from Iran in July - August [3][4] Negative Factors - Multiple HDPE plants are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year [8] - The current spot price lacks strong support, making the real - world market weak [8] 5. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main - contract basis on July 11, 2025, was 64 yuan/ton higher than the previous day and 18 yuan/ton lower than the previous week [6] - Details of L01, L05, L09 contract prices, month - to - month spreads, and L - P spreads are provided in the report [9] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices and regional spreads in North China, East China, and South China are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [9] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, are given, along with their changes [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Prices of Brent crude oil, US ethane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits from different production methods (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) are provided, along with their changes [9]