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生猪:现货情绪转弱,期现背离
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-11 01:36

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the expected trading phase. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - term sentiment, increasing the market gaming sentiment. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in mid - to late July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory rotation is more complex and needs to be judged in combination with factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer's pig holding. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: Henan's spot price is 14,880 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; and Guangdong's is 16,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Futures Prices: The price of the live hog 2509 contract is 14,375 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 13,695 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton; and the 2601 contract is 13,775 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the live hog 2509 contract is 40,300 lots, an increase of 14,639 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 74,505 lots, an increase of 2,765 lots. The 2511 contract has a trading volume of 9,558 lots, an increase of 1,014 lots, and an open interest of 43,119 lots, an increase of 70 lots. The 2601 contract has a trading volume of 5,085 lots, an increase of 1,223 lots, and an open interest of 20,483 lots, an increase of 403 lots [2] - Price Spreads: The basis of the live hog 2509 contract is 505 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 1,185 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan/ton; the 2601 contract is 1,105 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton. The spread between the 9 - 11 contracts is 680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 11 - 1 contracts is - 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 3. Market Logic - The current market is in the expected trading phase, with policy and near - term sentiment driving the market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent spot performance after the large - scale slaughter of piglets in mid - to late July. The inventory rotation path is complex, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are given [4]