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碳酸锂:累库加速但仓单偏少,震荡格局或延续
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-11 01:36

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The accumulation of lithium carbonate inventory is accelerating, but the number of warehouse receipts is relatively small, and the volatile pattern may continue [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: The closing prices of the 2509 and 2511 contracts of lithium carbonate increased, with the 2509 contract closing at 64,400 and the 2511 contract at 64,080. The trading volume and open interest of the 2509 contract decreased, while the trading volume of the 2511 contract decreased and the open interest increased slightly. The warehouse receipt volume was 13,281 hands, showing a decrease compared to previous periods [1]. - Base - related Data: The basis between spot and futures contracts showed different changes. For example, the spot - 2509 was - 1,100, and the 2509 - 2511 was 320 [1]. - Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, while the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also increased. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [1]. - Industry Chain Consumption - related Data: The prices of some materials such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable or decreasing [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - Price and Production Data: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,485 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 266 yuan/ton. The weekly output of lithium carbonate was 18,813 tons, an increase of 690 tons from the previous week, and the industry inventory was 140,793 tons, an increase of 2,446 tons from the previous week [2]. - European Union Policy: The EU will allocate 852 million euros (about 7.16 billion yuan) to develop electric vehicle batteries, which is part of the "IF24 Battery" plan. The selected projects are expected to be put into operation before 2030, reducing about 91 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions and achieving an annual production capacity of about 56 GWh of electric vehicle battery cells [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].