尿素：震荡偏强

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the urea industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea shows a state of small - scale price increases dominated by speculation. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with a decline in supply due to centralized maintenance and a decrease in daily production. On the demand side, traders are picking up goods for export, and short - term inventory accumulation is unlikely. However, as domestic agricultural demand nears its end, fundamental pressure is increasing, which restricts the upside of prices. The daily price fluctuations depend on the continuation of spot trading activity and the macro - level drive from the warming of the macro - sentiment in the commodity market [3][4] Summary by Directory Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,777 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,777 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 253,398 lots, an increase from the previous day; the open interest was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 2,645 tons, an increase of 400 tons; the trading value was 900.403 million yuan, an increase of 311.459 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was 83 yuan, up 13 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 57 yuan, up 33 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 23 yuan, down 7 yuan; the spread between UR09 and UR01 was 44 yuan, up 10 yuan [2] - Spot Market: The factory prices of some urea producers changed. Henan Xinlianxin's price was 1,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Shanxi Fengxi's was 1,720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Jiangsu Linggu's was 1,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions also increased by 20 yuan to 1,860 yuan/ton and 1,720 yuan/ton respectively. The industry's operating rate was 84.99%, up 0.86 percentage points, and the daily output was 196,760 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons [2] Industry News - On July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 967,700 tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons from the previous week, a 4.99% decrease. The inventory of some enterprises increased in Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, while it decreased in Anhui, Hainan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing [3]