沥青：随油震荡，小幅累库

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the asphalt market, indicating that asphalt prices fluctuate with oil prices and manifest a slight inventory build - up. The trend strength of asphalt is - 1, suggesting a relatively bearish outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Data - Futures: For BU2507, the yesterday's closing price was 3,650 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.83%, and the night - session closing price was 3,700 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 1.37%. The trading volume was 34 lots (a decrease of 8 lots), and the open interest was 1,119 lots (unchanged). For BU2508, the yesterday's closing price was 3,660 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.36%, and the night - session closing price was 3,646 yuan/ton with a night - session decrease of 0.38%. The trading volume was 1,868 lots (a decrease of 2,106 lots), and the open interest was 14,639 lots (a decrease of 385 lots). The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 82,300 lots (unchanged) [1]. - Spreads: The basis (Shandong - 07) was 175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 07 - 08 inter - period spread was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was 205 (unit not specified), a decrease of 10; the East China - South China spread was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Spot Market: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,830 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of July 10, the refinery operating rate was 36.28%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from July 7; the refinery inventory rate was 28.87%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points [1]. Market Information - Production: From July 4 - 10, 2025, the weekly total domestic asphalt production was 567,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (1.4% decline) compared to the previous week but an increase of 125,000 tons (28.3% increase) year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to July was 15.378 million tons, an increase of 954,000 tons (6.6% increase) year - on - year [13]. - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 806,000 tons, a 0.5% increase from July 7. The total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.818 million tons, a 0.1% increase from July 7. The overall refinery inventory and social inventory showed a slight build - up, with significant inventory build - up in the Northwest and North China refinery warehouses and the Southwest social warehouses [13].