宏源期货日刊-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol market is currently in a state of shock and upward movement. The trading atmosphere is good, with spot and futures trading mainly based on exchanges. The price of ethylene glycol has shown a certain upward trend, but the overall demand is still relatively weak. In the short term, the market sentiment is relatively positive, but in the long term, the supply - demand relationship and cost support need to be further observed. The supply structure is expected to gradually change, and attention should be paid to the efficiency of the supply - end and the impact of news on the market [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Raw Material Prices: On July 10, 2025, the CFR Japan naphtha price was $591.00/ton, down 1.21% from the previous value; the Northeast Asia ethylene price was $821.00/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the methanol MA spot price was 2377.50 yuan/ton, unchanged; the含税 lignite (3500) pit - mouth price in Inner Mongolia was 290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Ethylene Glycol Futures and Spot Prices: On July 10, 2025, the DCE EG main contract closing price was 4325.00 yuan/ton, up 0.98%; the settlement price was 4300.00 yuan/ton, up 0.75%; the near - month contract closing price and settlement price were both 4226.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI ethylene glycol price index was 4395.00 yuan/ton, up 0.92% [1] - Price Differences: On July 10, 2025, the near - far month price difference of ethylene glycol was 81.00 yuan/ton, up 32.00 from the previous value; the basis was 70.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 [1] - External Market Cash Flow: On July 9, 2025, the cash flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was -$127.58/ton, down $19.21 from the previous value [1] - Polyester Product Prices: On July 10, 2025, the CCFEI polyester DTY price index was 8650.00 yuan/ton, down 0.57%; the polyester POY price index was 7100.00 yuan/ton, down 0.70%; the polyester staple fiber price index was 6670.00 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the bottle - grade chip price index was 5965.00 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [1] Operating Conditions - On July 10, 2025, the comprehensive ethylene glycol operating rate was 57.41%, unchanged; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 59.20%, unchanged; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 54.83%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain polyester factory load rate was 86.87%, unchanged; the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 61.22%, down 2.10% [1] Market Transaction and Outlook - The ethylene glycol market trading atmosphere is good, with spot trading mainly by merchants and futures trading mainly by contract exchanges. The price is in a state of shock and upward movement, with the afternoon spot trading at a relatively high level. The external market has a small increase, and the trading volume has increased [2] - The current trading volume of ethylene glycol is decreasing, accompanied by a continuous reduction in downstream polyester production. The demand is relatively weak, but the market sentiment is relatively positive in the short term. In the long term, the supply - demand relationship and cost support need to be further observed. The supply structure is expected to gradually change, and attention should be paid to the efficiency of the supply - end and the impact of news on the market [2]