工业硅：关注仓单注册情况，多晶硅：政策扰动，盘面波动放大

Report Overview - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Industrial Silicon: Monitor Warehouse Receipt Registration; Polysilicon: Policy Disturbance Amplifies Market Fluctuations [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon investors should pay attention to warehouse receipt registration, while polysilicon market faces policy - induced fluctuations [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: Si2509 had a closing price of 8,470 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,468,586 lots and an open interest of 381,237 lots. PS2508 closed at 41,345 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,014,567 lots and an open interest of 98,601 lots [2] - Basis: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varied by different benchmarks. For example, the premium to East - China Si5530 was +210 yuan/ton, and to Tianjin 99 silicon was +110 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot premium to N - type recycled material was +7815 yuan/ton [2] - Prices: East - China oxygen - fed Si5530 was priced at 8750 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 at 9900 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type recycled material at 46000 yuan/ton [2] - Profits: Silicon plant profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) were - 2596 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) were - 4559 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits were - 1.2 yuan/kg [2] - Inventory: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.1 million tons, enterprise inventory was 17.4 million tons, and industry inventory was 72.5 million tons. Polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 27.6 million tons [2] - Raw Material Costs: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. showed different trends. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore was 340 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore was 320 yuan/ton [2] - Photovoltaic Products: Silicon wafers (N - type - 182mm) were priced at 1 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - M10) at 0.225 yuan/watt, and components (N - type - 182mm) at 0.65 yuan/watt [2] - Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloys: DMC was priced at 10450 yuan/ton, and ADC12 was priced at 20100 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - On July 8, Yunnan's relevant departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Direct Green Power Connection in Yunnan Province" to promote local conversion of green power resources [3] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]