五矿期货文字早评-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, trade tariffs, and seasonal characteristics. In the short - term, market sentiment and expectations play a significant role in price fluctuations, while in the long - term, fundamentals like supply and demand, inventory levels, and cost factors are crucial [3][7][25] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term, while others face challenges and are likely to be bearish or range - bound [9][11][25] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Index Futures - Macro News: The Ministry of Commerce has launched a special campaign against strategic mineral smuggling exports. The US may impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, 2025. China's auto production and sales in the first half of the year exceeded 15 million units, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. Beijing encourages listed companies to increase dividend rates [2] - Basis Ratio: Different basis ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3] - Trading Logic: Overseas, focus on the impact of US tariffs. Domestically, pay attention to the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. With low treasury bond interest rates and high stock - bond yield ratios, funds may flow into high - yield assets. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF long contracts on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4] Treasury Bonds - Market Quotes: On Thursday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts declined by 0.36%, 0.16%, 0.14%, and 0.04% respectively [5] - News: The US may impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products from August 1, 2025. China aims to promote high - quality new - type urbanization [5] - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net investment of 32.8 billion yuan [6][7] - Strategy: The economy is affected by tariffs, but the PMI in June improved. Exports may face pressure in the future. The capital market is expected to remain relatively loose. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The recent strong stock market suppresses the bond market [7] Precious Metals - Market Quotes: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The US 10 - year treasury bond yield was 4.35%, and the US dollar index was 97.55 [8] - Market Outlook: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The Fed may keep interest rates unchanged in July but turn dovish in its statement and cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Focus on long opportunities for silver, while gold may be relatively weak. The reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver main contracts are provided [9] Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Quotes: LME copper rose 0.23%, and Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78,590 yuan/ton [11] - Industry Situation: LME inventory increased, and domestic refined copper inventory slightly rose. The US copper tariff policy will widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, and there is a risk of correction for LME and Shanghai copper. The reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [11] Aluminum - Market Quotes: LME aluminum rose 0.15%, and Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,760 yuan/ton [12] - Industry Situation: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the supply of aluminum ingots may increase in July, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. The reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [12] Zinc - Market Quotes: Shanghai zinc index rose 1.28%, and LME zinc rose. The zinc market shows a high supply expectation, and although the photovoltaic industry boosts market sentiment, the upward space is limited [13] Lead - Market Quotes: Shanghai lead index rose 0.34%, and LME lead rose. The lead market shows a strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited due to weak domestic consumption [14] Nickel - Market Quotes: Shanghai nickel and LME nickel rose. The main contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand, which leads to a decline in nickel - iron prices. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are provided [15] Tin - Market Quotes: Shanghai tin rose 1.46%. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and the reference price ranges for Shanghai tin and LME tin are provided [16] Lithium Carbonate - Market Quotes: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the LC2509 contract declined. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak, with increasing production and inventory. The reference price range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2509 contract is provided [17][18] Alumina - Market Quotes: The alumina index rose 2.44%. The alumina market has an over - capacity problem. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference price range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is provided [19] Stainless Steel - Market Quotes: The stainless - steel main contract rose. The spot market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. The industry still faces high inventory pressure, and the future market depends on policy implementation and fundamental improvement [20] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Quotes: The AD2511 contract rose. The cast aluminum alloy market has weak supply and demand in the off - season. The futures price faces upward pressure due to the expected weakening of aluminum prices and large basis differences [21][22] Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Quotes: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. The market is affected by the rumor of the "Central Urban Work Conference" and the expectation of real - estate policies. The fundamentals show a decrease in supply and demand for rebar and a slight increase in inventory for hot - rolled coil. The market needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [24][25] Iron Ore - Market Quotes: The iron ore main contract rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand (hot - metal production) declined. The port inventory decreased, and the steel - mill inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and risk control is needed [26][27][28] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The policy expectation pushed up the glass price, and it is recommended to avoid short positions [29] - Soda Ash: The spot price rose, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand is still weak, and the market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The market is affected by "anti - involution" rumors. The fundamentals point downward, but the short - term price is driven by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and short on rallies for hedging positions [31][32][33] Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The industrial silicon futures price rose. The industrial silicon market has over - supply and insufficient demand. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for investment positions and short on rallies for hedging positions [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU rose. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The tire - opening rate is relatively high, but the inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - term and use a short - term long - on - dips strategy [39][40][42] Crude Oil - Market Quotes: WTI and Brent crude oil declined, while INE crude oil rose. The market is in a multi - empty game between strong reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to wait and see and control risks [43] Methanol - Market Quotes: The 09 - contract of methanol rose. The domestic supply decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [44] Urea - Market Quotes: The 09 - contract of urea rose. The domestic supply increased slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizers and exports is expected to increase. The price has support below but is restricted by high supply above. It is recommended to go long on dips [45] Styrene - Market Quotes: The styrene price rose with the increase of pure - benzene futures. The cost - side supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [46] PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC09 contract rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is mainly focused on inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be under pressure [48] Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG09 contract rose. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short on rallies [49] PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA09 contract rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is slightly under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [50] p - Xylene - Market Quotes: The PX09 contract rose. The PX market is expected to reduce inventory in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [51] Polyethylene (PE) - Market Quotes: The PE price is expected to be range - bound. The supply is affected by high - maintenance, and the demand is in the off - season [52] Polypropylene (PP) - Market Quotes: The PP price is expected to be bearish in July. The supply and demand are both weak in the off - season [53] Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market Quotes: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - falling. The supply may be abundant, and the demand support is limited. The short - term long - position may have space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply delay and hedging pressure [55] Eggs - Market Quotes: The egg price was mostly stable with some adjustments. The supply is stable, and the demand is normal. The short - term is recommended to wait and see or use short - term operations, and the medium - term is recommended to short on rallies for post - festival contracts [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Quotes: US soybeans were weak, and domestic soybean meal was stable. The supply of soybeans or protein is still excessive. It is recommended to go long on dips at the low - end of the cost range and wait for new supply - side drivers [57][58] Oils and Fats - Market Quotes: Domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil declined. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are still bearish factors. The market is expected to be range - bound [59][60] Sugar - Market Quotes: Zhengzhou sugar futures rose. The domestic sugar price may continue to decline due to the expected increase in imports [61] Cotton - Market Quotes: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose. The cotton price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [62][63]