Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of HK$450, indicating an upside potential of 10.2% from the current price of HK$408.20 [3][2]. Core Insights - The report revises the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Hong Kong Exchanges for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E down by -1.8%, -1.5%, and -1.2% respectively, based on updated volume data for June 2025 and July 2025 [1][2]. - The investment income estimates have also been updated to reflect the latest HIBOR forecasts, but the overall investment thesis remains unchanged [1]. - The target price is derived from a 3-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM), implying a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37X for 2026E [2][3]. Financial Projections - Market capitalization is reported at HK$517.5 billion (approximately $65.9 billion) [3]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024E at HK$22,374 million, 2025E at HK$25,351.9 million, 2026E at HK$26,573 million, and 2027E at HK$28,025.7 million [3]. - EPS estimates are revised to HK$10.32 for 2025E, HK$11.49 for 2026E, and HK$12.04 for 2027E [3]. - The report indicates a dividend per share (DPS) of HK$9.26 for 2025E, with a projected dividend yield of 3.5% [3]. Risks and Methodology - The report identifies potential downside risks including increased competition from onshore capital markets, lower trading velocity in the cash market, fee pressure from reduced fees in China, and a sustained deflationary environment in China [2]. - The methodology for the target price is based on a 3-stage DDM approach, which is a standard valuation method used in the industry [2].
高盛：香港交易所-6 月成交量及香港银行同业拆借利率数据更新；买入评级