商品期货早班车-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market conditions are complex and influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international events. Different commodities show different trends, and investors are advised to make decisions based on specific market conditions [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - Aluminum: The 2508 contract's closing price increased by 0.90% to 20700 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2611 dollars/ton. Aluminum plants maintain high - load production, but the demand side shows a decline in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. With increasing inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Alumina: The 2509 contract's closing price rose 2.49% to 3208 yuan/ton. Some northern alumina plants are under maintenance, and supply has tightened. The short - term price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and purchase call options [2]. - Silicon: The main 09 contract closed at 8470 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing in Yunnan, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The industry's production start - up elasticity is high, and the rebound pressure is large. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main LC2509 contract closed at 64180 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. Supply is increasing, and inventory has reached a new high. Although demand is expected to improve marginally, it is difficult to drive inventory reduction. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The main 08 contract closed at 41345 yuan/ton, up 2075 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and demand in July shows a decline in silicon wafer and battery cell production schedules. The market is influenced by rumors, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main 2510 contract closed at 3141 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton. Supply and demand are both weak, but inventory pressure is small due to low production. The futures discount has narrowed, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread [3]. - Iron Ore: The main 2509 contract closed at 764.5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Supply and demand are neutral, and inventory is decreasing. The iron water output is stable, and the futures valuation is moderately high. It is recommended to wait and see and set up a long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio [3]. - Coking Coal: The main 2509 contract closed at 906.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton. Supply and demand are generally loose but improving. The futures are at a premium, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The supply is loose in the near - term internationally, and the growth of US soybeans is normal in the long - term. The demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and there are uncertainties in US new - crop soybeans. The short - term US soybeans are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the domestic market follows the international cost side. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [5]. - Corn: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price declined slightly. The annual supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally, but wheat substitution and increased imports of substitute grains suppress the price. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. - Sugar: The 09 contract closed at 5805 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. Brazil's ethanol blending ratio will increase, but the impact on the sugar - making ratio is limited. The domestic market follows the trend of raw sugar, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for sugar users [5]. - Cotton: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded. US cotton exports increased, and Brazil's cotton production is expected to rise. In China, the cotton price fluctuated upward, and textile enterprise inventory decreased while yarn inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [5]. - Palm Oil: The short - term Malaysian palm oil price declined. The production and export in Malaysia decreased in June, and inventory increased. The short - term price center is expected to move up with wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [5]. - Eggs: The 2508 contract declined slightly, and the spot price rose slightly. Supply is high, and although low prices stimulate demand, the high - temperature and high - humidity weather is not conducive to storage. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - Hogs: The 2509 contract rose slightly, and most of the spot prices declined. Supply is increasing, and high temperatures affect consumption. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [6]. - Apples: The main contract closed at 7783 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The price of apples in Shandong is stable. The early - maturing varieties' opening price may support the market, but if supply increases later, the market expectation may be revised downward. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The main contract rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing due to new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices, and imports are expected to decrease. Demand is improving at the end of the off - season. The short - term market will fluctuate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on price rebounds in the long - term [7]. - PVC: The v09 contract closed at 5040 yuan/ton, up 2.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory has increased. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - Rubber: The main contract rose 2.86% to 14405 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, and inventory is expected to decrease. The price increase is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and hold the RU - NR long - spread [8]. - Glass: The fg09 contract closed at 1090 yuan/ton, up 5.4%. Supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - PP: The main contract rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on price rebounds in the long - term [8]. - Crude Oil: Oil prices declined due to the US tariff on Brazil and OPEC's production plan. Supply is expected to be in surplus, especially in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on price increases [8]. - Styrene: The main EB contract continued to rebound slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. The short - term market will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on price rebounds in the long - term [9]. - Soda Ash: The sa09 contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 3.7%. Supply is increasing after maintenance, and inventory is at a high level. The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to short on price increases [9].