广金期货策略早餐-20250711

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Aluminum: The price of aluminum is expected to remain high both in the short - term and medium - term. The supply capacity has limited room for growth, the current inventory is at a 5 - year low, and the good performance of the automotive market is favorable for the aluminum price [1]. - Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil): The price of steel is expected to be strong both in the short - term and from July to August. The supply pressure of steel raw materials will ease, and the speculative demand for steel will increase [3][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Aluminum - Intraday View: High - level operation, with a trading range of 20,500 - 20,800 [1]. - Medium - term View: High - level operation, with a trading range of 19,200 - 21,000 [1]. - Reference Strategy: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [1]. - Core Logic: Supply capacity is close to the upper limit set in 2017, the current inventory is at a 5 - year low, and the automotive market is performing well [1]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Intraday View: Prices are expected to run strongly [3]. - Medium - term View: Prices are expected to be strong from July to August [3]. - Reference Strategy: Hold the bought rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3000, exit the call option selling strategy, and hold the sold rebar RB2510 - P - 2900 [3]. - Core Logic: - Supply: The inventory pressure of steel raw materials will ease after mid - July, which may support the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs. The supply pressure of imported iron ore will decrease, and the coal and coke prices are expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - Demand: Although the overall downstream consumption of steel is weak, the plate demand is okay, and the speculative demand is expected to increase due to positive factors [4].