Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials released dovish signals and proposed to relax supervision of large - scale banks, and US trade negotiations accelerated, leading to a rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies emphasized "anti - involution" and "stabilizing employment", which increased domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overall Situation: Overseas and domestic risk appetites are rising. In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to be short - term oscillating and strengthening, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are in a short - term high - level oscillation, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black metals are in a short - term low - level oscillating rebound, non - ferrous metals are rising sharply in the short - term, energy - chemical products are in a short - term oscillating rebound, and precious metals are in a short - term high - level oscillation, all with short - term cautious long positions recommended [3]. - Stock Index: Driven by sectors such as silicon energy, real estate, and coal, the domestic stock market rose. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro upward drive is weakening, and follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiation progress and domestic incremental policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - Precious Metals: Gold continued its high - level oscillation on Thursday. Trump's tariff announcement and the Fed's attitude towards interest rates affect the market. The US credit decline and geopolitical risks support gold in the medium - to - long - term, and tariff disturbances are the main short - term influencing factor [5]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly on Thursday. There were many positive news about urban renewal. Real - world demand declined, with different trends in different varieties. Supply decreased due to the implementation of production - restriction policies, and cost support was strong. The steel market should be treated with a short - term rebound mindset [6]. - Iron Ore: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly on Thursday. Driven by improved macro expectations and real - estate market rumors, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, and follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [7]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly. Demand decreased, but prices may follow the rebound of coal prices in the short - term [8]. - Soda Ash: On Thursday, the soda ash main contract was running strongly. Affected by the central government's signal on anti - involution, there are concerns about production capacity withdrawal. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand was slightly increased but still at a low level, and profits decreased. It is expected to be short - term oscillating and strengthening [9]. - Glass: On Thursday, the glass main contract price was running strongly. Affected by the anti - involution policy, there are expectations of production reduction. Supply slightly increased, demand was weak, and profits were still at a low level. Supply - side production reduction expectations are expected to support prices [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Trump's proposed 50% tariff on copper imports to the US affects the market. The key to future copper price trends lies in the tariff implementation time [11]. - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose significantly on Thursday, affected by urban renewal news. The fundamentals are weakening, and it is expected to be short - term oscillating [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it is in the demand off - season. Considering cost support, the price is expected to be short - term oscillating and strengthening, but the upward space is limited [12]. - Tin: Supply has recovered, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be short - term oscillating, and the upward space will be restricted in the medium - term [12]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate decreased slightly on Thursday. The supply side has a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [13]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon decreased in position on Thursday. Affected by policies, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [13]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon continued to rise significantly on Thursday. Affected by policies, the expectations of industrial silicon and polysilicon are strong. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [14][15]. Energy - Chemical Products - Crude Oil: Global trade wars and OPEC+ production - increase suspension discussions led to a significant decline in oil prices on Thursday. Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [16]. - Asphalt: Oil prices are running at a low level, and asphalt prices are oscillating. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory reduction [16]. - PX: Crude oil is oscillating, and PX is oscillating in a neutral price range. The weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of downstream products [16]. - PTA: The liquidity of the spot market has improved, and downstream开工 has decreased. PTA prices are expected to have some downward space [17]. - Ethylene Glycol: Port inventory has decreased, but downstream开工 is decreasing. It is expected to continue to build a bottom and follow the polyester sector to run weakly [17]. - Short - fiber: The price of short - fiber is following the polyester sector to run weakly. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory reduction [17]. - Methanol: The futures of methanol are oscillating upward. The supply - demand expectation has deteriorated, and short - selling opportunities should be noted [18][19]. - PP: The futures of PP are running strongly, but the supply - demand imbalance is prominent. The price is expected to decline further in the medium - to - long - term, and the short - term rebound space is limited [19]. - LLDPE: The price of LLDPE has risen. Supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. It can be used as a short - selling variety [20]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The price of US soybeans rose overnight. The key to the market is the weather during the 7 - 8 key growth period. The current weather is favorable for growth, and the market has a high expectation of a bumper harvest [21]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: US soybeans are affected by bio - diesel policies and export conditions. Domestic soybean meal has relatively strong support. The supply pressure of domestic imported soybeans is difficult to relieve. Rapeseed meal is mainly concerned with Sino - Canadian trade policies [22]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: Rapeseed oil inventory is high, and soybean oil supply is stable. They are affected by palm oil in the short - term, and there is a risk of a phased increase in the price difference [22]. - Palm Oil: Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached an 18 - month high at the end of June. The export volume increased in early July [23]. - Corn: The auction success rate of imported corn has decreased, and there is a risk of rice auction in August, which may impact the corn market [23]. - Pigs: The supply of pigs in July is expected to decrease. The cost of secondary fattening has increased, and the concentrated出栏 of large - weight pigs in July and August will limit the increase in pig prices [24].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250711
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-07-11 01:56