国新国证期货早报-20250711

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On July 10, 2025, the A-share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1494.2 billion yuan, slightly down by 1.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The prices of various futures varieties also showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 10, the A-share market had a collective rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to close at 3509.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47% to 10631.13 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.22% to 2189.58 points. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4010.02, up 18.62 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 10, the weighted index of coke was strong, closing at 1501.6, up 50.0. The weighted index of coking coal remained strong, closing at 908.1 yuan, up 34.7. The spot price of port coke increased, and the production profit of coking enterprises was poor, leading to reduced production and inventory reduction. The price of coking coal in some areas increased, and coal mines gradually resumed production, with reduced inventory pressure [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of June, the US sugar price rose on Wednesday. Supported by the increase in US sugar price and spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose on Thursday and adjusted at night. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association expects a significant increase in sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season [4]. Rubber - Due to heavy rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, the supply of raw materials decreased, and the spot price in Southeast Asia continued to rise. The Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Thursday and adjusted slightly at night. The operating rates of tire factories showed slight differences this week [5]. Soybean Meal - On July 10, the CBOT soybean futures rebounded. The US soybean export sales increased, but the high - quality rate and good weather reduced the risk of soybean production reduction. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans in oil mills was sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal was increasing. There is a large gap in imported soybean orders after September [6]. Live Pigs - On July 10, the main contract of live pigs (LH2509) rose 0.77% to 14375 yuan/ton. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end accelerated, but the terminal market was in the off - season, and there was supply pressure in the medium and long term [7]. Palm Oil - On July 10, palm oil had a slight shock adjustment after encountering resistance in the recent rise. The MPOB data showed that the production, export, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June had different changes, with the overall data being slightly bearish [8]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper showed a weak trend, with complex supply - demand situations due to the expected increase in global copper mine production and possible decline in US downstream demand. Attention should be paid to LME inventory changes and macro - policy dynamics [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 10, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13875 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 50 lots compared to the previous day [9]. Logs - On July 10, the main contract of logs (2509) showed a certain trend, and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The port log inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [9][10]. Steel - On July 10, the rb2510 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3262 yuan/ton. The price increase was due to positive sentiment and the release of speculative demand in the spot market. The overall production and demand of the five major steel products decreased, and there was no significant supply - demand contradiction [11][13]. Alumina - On July 10, the ao2509 contract closed at 3208 yuan/ton. Although there is an expected supply surplus, it may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term due to news and the risk of short - squeezing [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 10, the al2508 contract closed at 20700 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was close to the industry ceiling, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum rods and ingots showed signs of accumulation, but the low - inventory state may support the price in the short term [13].