集运日报：加沙停火或将出现转机，市场观望情绪强，今日盘面若冲高可考虑部分止盈，符合日报预期。-20250711

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gaza ceasefire may see a turnaround, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. Consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today, which meets the daily report's expectations [1] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Indexes Shipping Indexes - On July 4 - 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 2258.04 points, up 6.3%; the NCFI (European route) was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1557.77 points, down 3.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1] - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1342.99 points, down 1.9%; the SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the CCFI (European route) was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the SCFI US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97%; the CCFI (US West route) was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1] PMI Indexes - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2] - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 points higher than May, and the same as April, back above the critical point [2] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [2] Group 4: Trading Strategies Short - term Strategy - For risk - takers, it was recommended to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (has made a profit of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today. It is recommended to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] Arbitrage Strategy - With the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [3] Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3] Group 5: Market Conditions of Contracts - On July 10, the main contract 2508 closed at 2022.5, up 1.62%, with a trading volume of 3.46 million lots and an open interest of 3.09 million lots, a decrease of 403 lots from the previous day [3] - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26% [3] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]