宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the fermentation of positive expectations, leading to an upward oscillation of steel prices [2]. - Rebar shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with the fundamentals remaining unchanged. However, due to low inventory, minor real - world contradictions, the fermentation of recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and cost support from strong raw materials, steel prices are expected to maintain a slightly stronger short - term trend, with a focus on policy developments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of positive expectations driving the upward oscillation of steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - On the supply side, construction steel mills have shifted production, rebar output has declined again, and supply has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable. On the demand side, rebar demand continues its seasonal weakness, with weekly performance declining month - on - month, high - frequency trading volume significantly reduced, both at low levels in recent years, and the downstream industry shows no improvement, so the weak demand pattern remains unchanged [3]. - Overall, rebar has a situation of weak supply and demand, with unchanged fundamentals. During the off - season, steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are low inventory, minor real - world contradictions, the fermentation of recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and cost support from strong raw materials. Steel prices are expected to maintain a slightly stronger short - term trend, and attention should be paid to policy conditions [3].