国投期货综合晨报-20250711

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as Trump's tariff policies, seasonal demand, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events, leading to diverse trends in different commodities and financial markets [2][44] - Different commodities and markets show different trends including upward, downward, and oscillatory movements, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors affecting each market 3. Summary by Commodity and Market Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 09 contract down 1.85%. Uncertainties in economic and oil demand remain due to tariff policies, and although the peak - season physical market provides support, the upside space above $70/barrel is limited [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The strength order is SC > BU > LU > FU. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks a clear driving force, with both showing weakening trends [18] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The international market supply is generally loose, and prices are stable. The import cost decline drives PDH margin repair, but the market maintains low - level oscillations in summer [20] - Natural Gas: No relevant information provided Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. Fed officials are divided on interest - rate cuts, and uncertainties before the US tariff deadline may cause risk sentiment to fluctuate, leading to continued oscillations [3] - Copper: Overnight copper prices oscillated. Trump's tariff remarks may further push prices down during the domestic off - season, and short positions are recommended [4] - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate strongly. Although there are signs of negative feedback in the off - season, inventory accumulation is not significant. Market risk preference is positive, and attention should be paid to position changes [5] - Alumina: The anti - involution theme drives the rise of alumina futures and spot prices. Although it is currently oscillating strongly, the high - level operating capacity may limit the upside space [6] - Zinc: Zinc prices rebounded following the black - metal market. Although the short - term low - inventory situation leads to intensified capital games, the long - term downward trend is determined by the supply - demand imbalance [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly, but with sufficient inventory and weak upstream price support, short positions are recommended on a light scale [10] - Tin: Overnight, LME tin recovered most of its gains. Attention is on the low - level fluctuations of LME tin inventory, and short positions from previous highs are recommended to be held [11] Chemicals - Methanol: Methanol imports and apparent demand are weak, and port inventory is accumulating. Although planned plant overhauls may support prices, the off - season demand may limit price increases, resulting in range - bound oscillations [22] - PVC & Caustic Soda: Affected by production rumors, PVC is strong in the short term, but long - term price increases are limited due to weak demand and high production. Caustic soda continues to rise, but long - term supply pressure may limit significant price increases [25] - PX & PTA: Overnight oil prices fell, causing PX and PTA prices to decline. PX supply - demand improves, while PTA supply - demand eases, and attention should be paid to the plant overhaul rhythm at low processing margins [26] - Ethylene Glycol: Affected by falling oil prices, ethylene glycol oscillated overnight. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and improved market sentiment provide some support [27] - Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin: Prices of short - fiber and bottle - grade resin declined slightly. Short - fiber inventory may increase, and caution is needed regarding the repair space of bottle - grade resin processing margins [28] - Pure Benzene: Overnight oil prices fell, and the increase of pure benzene slowed. There are short - term positives in the market, but it will face pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal supply - demand trends should be considered for operation [46] Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The US soybean good - quality rate is normal, and the domestic soybean meal market oscillates. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade and future weather conditions need to be monitored [32] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Palm oil prices slightly corrected. The MPOB report is more bearish than expected, but long - term, bio - diesel development may support vegetable oil prices. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather [33] - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: Canadian rapeseed may face local dry risks, and domestic rapeseed oil is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [34] - Corn: Dalian corn oscillates. The increase in supply due to auctions affects market expectations, and the market may continue to oscillate [36] - Sugar: US sugar oscillates weakly due to expected increases in India and Thailand's production. The domestic sugar market has low import volumes and light inventory pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate [40] - Cotton: US cotton rose slightly. Brazilian cotton harvesting is slow, and domestic cotton has a good inventory digestion but faces off - season pressure. Buying on dips is recommended [39] - Eggs: Egg futures declined, and the spot price is stable. The peak - season start time may be delayed, and long - term egg prices may not have bottomed out [38] - Hogs: Hog futures rose, but the spot price weakened slightly. Long - term capacity pressure exists, and there is downward pressure on hog prices [37] - Apples: Apple futures oscillate. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on new - season yield estimates. A bearish operation strategy is recommended [41] Others - Shipping: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to oscillate in the short term, following spot freight rates. Geopolitical events may affect the market, and a cease - fire agreement may put pressure on far - month contracts [17] - Building Materials - Glass: Affected by production rumors and inventory reduction, glass futures rose. Short - term prices may follow macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases depend on real estate policies or supply reduction [29] - Lumber: Lumber futures oscillate. The supply of radiata pine is low, and demand shows some improvement, but prices are still weak due to the off - season [42] - Paper Pulp: Paper pulp futures rose significantly. Although port inventory is high and demand is weak, the "anti - involution" concept boosts sentiment, and short - term observation or short - term operations are recommended [43] - Financial Markets - Stock Index: A - shares oscillated upward, and index futures rose slightly. The market is concerned about Trump's tariff policies, and investors are advised to increase their allocation of technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation [44] - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures oscillated downward, and bond yields increased. Market risk preference is rising, and the bond market may face increased volatility [45]