甲醇日评：择机做多MTO利润-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests waiting for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500, and a unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 decreased by 29 yuan/ton (-1.18%) to 2434 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to 2360 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 26 yuan/ton (-1.08%) to 2372 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Prices: In太仓, the price increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) to 2390 yuan/ton; in山东, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 2255 yuan/ton; in广东, it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.52%) to 2412.5 yuan/ton; in内蒙古, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.51%) to 1972.5 yuan/ton. Prices in陕西, 川渝, and 湖北 remained unchanged [1]. - Basis: The basis of 太仓现货 - MA increased by 39 yuan/ton to -44 yuan/ton [1]. - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. 2. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 423.4 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at -590 yuan/ton [1]. - MTO Profit: Northwest MTO profit increased by 25 yuan/ton (5.47%) to 481.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 13 yuan/ton (1.82%) to -701.07 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol Downstream Profit: Acetic acid profit decreased by 6.04 yuan/ton (-1.52%) to 391.09 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-4.37%) to -238.8 yuan/ton; 二曲監 profit decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-16.23%) to 516 yuan/ton. MTBE profit remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2370 yuan/ton, closed at 2398 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 676921 lots and an open interest of 695469, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - Foreign: Non - Iranian methanol cargoes for far - month arrival are priced at 270 - 280 US dollars/ton, with some offers up 2%. In other Middle - East regions, far - month arrival cargoes are negotiated at +0.5 - 1.5%, with some transactions at +1%. Southeast Asian methanol plants are running stably, but demand is weak, and local prices are weakly adjusted [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The recent improvement in macro sentiment and policy expectations has boosted the bullish sentiment in commodities, and the rise in coal prices has also driven the rebound of methanol. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the supply - demand drive of methanol is not strong, and the basis in East China needs to converge. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. A unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines, and it is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1].