玉米生猪鸡蛋早盘提示-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, pigs, eggs) are rated as "Range" [1][3] Core Viewpoints - For corn, short - term prices are weak and stable, mid - term prices may rise but with limited upside, and long - term prices are restricted by policies and substitutes, following an import - substitution and planting - cost pricing logic [1] - For pigs, short - term prices will oscillate, mid - term supply may increase, and long - term production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3] - For eggs, short - term prices may confirm a bottom, mid - term prices may rebound during the peak season, and long - term prices may fall if the fourth - quarter supply pressure is realized [3] Summary by Variety Corn - Market Review: Overnight corn futures oscillated. The 2509 contract rose 0.04% to 2319 yuan/ton [1] - Important Information: Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices were stable with a slight decline; port prices were stable in the north and weak in the south; futures warehouse receipts decreased; wheat - corn spread was 30 yuan/ton; 305,643 tons of imported corn will be auctioned on July 11 [1] - Market Logic: Short - term bullish expectations are weak, mid - term supply may tighten, but long - term price increases are restricted [1] - Trading Strategy: Long - term range operation; mid - term low - buying; short - term downward pressure, with support for the 2509 contract at 2300 - 2320 [1] Pigs - Market Review: The main contracts of pig futures were slightly stronger. The LH2509 contract rose 1.09% to 14375 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.77% to 13695 yuan/ton [3] - Important Information: The national average pig price fell slightly; relevant inventory and price differentials were announced [3] - Market Logic: Short - term oscillation, mid - term supply may increase, and long - term production capacity will continue to be realized [3] - Trading Strategy: Long - term short - selling; mid - term range operation; short - term strength to test resistance, with pressure for the 2509 contract at 14400 - 14600 and for the 2511 contract at 13800 [3] Eggs - Market Review: Egg futures oscillated. The JD2508 contract fell 0.69% to 3446 yuan/500kg, and the JD2509 contract fell 0.2% to 3578 yuan/500kg [3] - Important Information: Egg spot prices stopped falling with some small increases; inventory decreased; relevant data on laying hens were announced [3] - Market Logic: Short - term prices may confirm a bottom, mid - term prices may rebound, and long - term prices may fall if supply pressure is realized [3] - Trading Strategy: The 08 contract has a wide - range operation, with pressure at 3600 - 3650 and support at 3400 - 3450; the 09 contract has a short - selling strategy, with pressure at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550. If the third - quarter culling is less than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for other contracts [3][4]