油脂日报：巴西大豆出口增加，油脂持续震荡-20250711

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The significant increase in Brazilian soybean exports led to a loose domestic soybean supply. Coupled with the weak MPOB export data and the accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the oil prices were under pressure and oscillated [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,638.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40 yuan and a decline of -0.46% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 7,944.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +24.00 yuan and an increase of +0.30% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,468.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -42.00 yuan and a decline of -0.44% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -10.00 yuan and a decline of -0.11%. The spot basis was P09 + 82.00, with a环比 change of +30.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,120.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +20.00 yuan/ton and an increase of +0.25%. The spot basis was Y09 + 176.00, with a环比 change of -4.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40.00 yuan and a decline of -0.41%. The spot basis was OI09 + 132.00, with a环比 change of +2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Brazilian Exports - ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports in July to reach 11.93 million tons, a 24.27% increase from 9.6 million tons in the same period last year - It expects soybean meal exports to be 2.19 million tons, an 8.96% increase from 2.01 million tons last year - It expects corn exports to be 4.34 million tons, a 7.66% decrease from 4.7 million tons last year [2] US Drought Report - As of the week ending July 8, about 9% of US soybean growing areas were affected by drought, up from 8% the previous week and the same as last year - About 12% of US corn growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and up from 7% last year - About 3% of US cotton growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and down from 22% last year [2] Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast - The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach 169.4879 million tons, a 14.7% increase of 21.7666 million tons year-on-year and a 0.1% decrease of 0.1179 million tons环比 - The sown area is expected to reach 47.6149 million hectares, a 3.2% increase of 1.4653 million hectares year-on-year and a decrease of 0.0049 million hectares环比 - The yield per unit area is expected to be 3.56 tons per hectare, an 11.2% increase of 358.638 kg per hectare year-on-year and a 0.1% decrease of 2.108 kg per hectare环比 [2] MPOB Monthly Report - Malaysian palm oil exports in June were 1,259,354 tons, a 10.52% decrease环比 - Production was 1,692,310 tons, a 4.48% decrease环比 - Imports were 70,015 tons, a 1.51% increase环比 - Inventory was 2,030,580 tons, a 2.41% increase环比 [2]