长丝再传减产，但宏观氛围回暖

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Three major filament manufacturers plan to jointly cut production by 15%, and the market atmosphere has warmed up due to expectations of policy benefits from the Politburo meeting around mid - July [1] - The supply - demand outlook for crude oil is poor, with supply surplus expectations pressuring oil prices, but geopolitical tensions provide some support; gasoline cracking spreads have limited upside, and the aromatics market has seen a decline in Korean exports of blending materials to the US [1] - Recently, several domestic PX plants have undergone maintenance, and PXN has widened. The PTA fundamentals are neutral, and the polyester industry shows a mixed situation with the polyester开工 rate at 90.2% (down 1.2% month - on - month) [1][2] - The short - term filament load is expected to remain stable, and the polyester load in July is expected to drop to 89% - 90% [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][27] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures present the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating loads of PX in China and Asia [28][31][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile, texturing, and dyeing industries [48][50][52] VII. PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, and production profits and processing fees [70][81][85] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip monthly spreads [89][93][96]