原油日报：欧佩克决定10月后暂停增产-20250711

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range. - Medium - term: Bearish allocation [4] 2. Core View - OPEC's decision to suspend production increases in October is more of a statement of attitude, indicating that it lacks confidence in off - season demand. The market has recognized that the relaxation of production quotas does not equal an increase in actual production. OPEC is currently ineffective, and most member countries lack the ability to actively adjust production. Saudi Arabia aims to support oil prices rather than seize market share, which is why it has been increasing production slowly [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's light crude oil futures for August delivery fell $1.81 to $66.57 per barrel, a 2.65% decline; Brent crude oil futures for September delivery on the London market dropped $1.55 to $68.64 per barrel, a 2.21% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.44% at 513 yuan per barrel [1] - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates quickly [2] - OPEC stated in its World Oil Outlook 2025 that global oil demand averages 105 million barrels per day this year, is expected to increase to 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and climb to 111.6 million barrels per day in 2029. Forecasts for 2026 - 2029 are lower than last year's. OPEC still predicts 113.3 million barrels per day in 2030, the same as last year. It expects global oil demand to reach 122.9 million barrels per day by 2050, higher than last year's forecast. OPEC expects demand growth to last longer than other forecasters, while the IEA predicts oil demand will peak in the 2020s [2] - OPEC+ discussed suspending production increases from October [2] - Israel's Defense Minister said that if Iran threatens Israel, Israel will strike Iran again [2] - The European Commission will propose a floating price cap mechanism for Russian oil this week as part of a new sanctions package. In June, it proposed lowering the G7's $60 - per - barrel price cap on Russian oil to $45 in the 18th round of sanctions. The G7 reached the price - cap agreement in December 2022 to weaken Russia's ability to finance the Ukraine conflict. The move to lower the cap is due to falling global oil prices, making the current cap ineffective. The Commission is drafting a mechanism to adjust the cap based on global oil price fluctuations, and the plan is still being revised [2] Investment Logic - OPEC decided to suspend production increases in October, and the previous production quota limit of 2.2 million barrels per day will be fully lifted before October. However, oil prices fell instead of rising. The market has recognized that the relaxation of production quotas does not equal an increase in actual production. OPEC's suspension of production increases is more of an attitude, indicating that it lacks confidence in October's demand [3] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [4] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Iranian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [4] - Upside risks: The US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [5]