尿素日报：上游煤炭走高，尿素偏强运行-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoint - The rising upstream coal prices and the unexpectedly high tender price of Indian urea have boosted the international price and market sentiment, leading to a strong performance in the urea futures market. Some planned maintenance devices have postponed shutdowns, resulting in continued high production. With the gradual release of urea export quotas, export orders have been concentrated at ports recently, leading to a continuous increase in port inventories. Mid - stream traders have made appropriate replenishments, and upstream enterprises' inventories have continued to decline. Agricultural demand has continued to progress, while industrial demand has weakened. Downstream compound fertilizer plants have made appropriate replenishments, and the order receipts of urea plants have gradually improved [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - The report presents figures on urea weekly production and urea device maintenance loss volume, with data sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate are included, and the data is from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [18][22] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - The report shows figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, urea export profit, and spot export profit, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][29][35] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and urea enterprise advance order days are presented, and the data is sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][40] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory days, and futures warehouse receipts, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [43][46] Market Data - On July 10, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,777 yuan/ton (+7). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,860 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,860 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 83 yuan/ton (+13), in Henan was 73 yuan/ton (+3), and in Jiangsu was 83 yuan/ton (+3). The urea production profit was 330 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 696 yuan/ton (-8) [1] - As of July 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.27% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (-5.08), and the port sample inventory was 48.50 million tons (+4.80) [1] - As of July 10, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83% (+0.58%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.56% (-0.43%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (+0.58) [1]