新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-11）-20250711

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Upward [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level sideways [4] - Silver: High - level sideways [4] - Pulp: Sideways [6] - Logs: Sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways [6] - Palm oil: Sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways [6] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways [6] - Soybean No.2: Sideways [6] - Soybean No.1: Sideways to bearish [6] - Live pigs: Rebound [8] - Rubber: Rebound [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Try shorting on rallies [10] - MEG: Try shorting on rallies [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] Core Views - The iron ore market is influenced by short - term sentiment with a short - term bullish trend, while in the long - term, it shows a pattern of oversupply. The coal - coking market is affected by supply - side reform and production resumption news, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply. The rolled steel and rebar market rebounds due to supply - side policies, with mild supply - demand contradictions in the short term. The glass market has limited supply - demand contradictions in the short term but faces challenges in long - term demand [2]. - The stock index market reflects China's economic resilience, with reduced market risk - aversion sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The Treasury bond market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a light position. The precious metals market, especially gold, is affected by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rates, and trade policies, and is expected to remain in a high - level sideways pattern [4]. - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to be sideways. The log market has reduced supply pressure and mild supply - demand contradictions. The oil and fat market has sufficient supply and is in a seasonal demand slump, with a short - term sideways trend. The agricultural products market, such as live pigs, is expected to continue the upward trend, and the rubber market is expected to have a wide - range sideways trend [6][8][10]. - The polyester market has different trends for different products. PX follows oil prices, PTA and MEG are recommended to try shorting on rallies, and PR and PF are in a wait - and - see state [10]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Short - term bullish influenced by sentiment, long - term oversupply. Recent supply shows a decline in shipments and arrivals, but overall supply remains loose. High hot metal production drives port inventory reduction. In the long - term, supply will increase, demand will be at a low level, and port inventory will enter the accumulation stage [2]. - Coal and coke: Upward due to supply - side reform and production resumption news. Coke production enterprises face profit compression, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: Upward. The supply - side "anti - involution" policy drives the rebound. In the off - season, demand shows a slight increase, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - Glass: Upward. The production capacity utilization rate is stable, and there is a weakening expectation in demand. The inventory is at a high level, and the long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The stock index shows a certain upward trend, reflecting China's economic resilience. It is recommended to hold long positions as market risk - aversion sentiment eases [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: The market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a light position [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to remain in a high - level sideways pattern, affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rates, trade policies, and geopolitical risks [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: Sideways. The supply - demand pattern is weak, with a decline in cost support and low acceptance of high - price pulp by paper mills [6]. - Logs: Sideways. The supply pressure is reduced, the supply center moves down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [6]. Oil, Fat and Feed Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: Sideways. Supply is sufficient, demand is in a seasonal slump, and there is a lack of self - driving force. Palm oil may be relatively more supported due to production cuts in the origin [6]. - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, and soybean No.1: Generally sideways. The soybean market is affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and exports. Attention should be paid to weather conditions in North America and South America and soybean arrivals [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: Rebound. The supply side has strong price - holding sentiment, and the demand side has increased procurement enthusiasm. It is expected to continue the upward trend [8]. - Rubber: Rebound. Supply is affected by weather, and demand has a structural recovery. Inventory shows different trends in different areas, and it is expected to have a wide - range sideways trend [10]. Polyester Industry - PX: Wait - and - see. It follows oil price fluctuations, and the short - term PXN spread has limited compression space [10]. - PTA: Try shorting on rallies. The cost fluctuates after a decline, and the supply - demand situation weakens in the medium term [10]. - MEG: Try shorting on rallies. Supply pressure may emerge, and it is gradually entering a supply - demand inventory accumulation stage [10]. - PR and PF: Wait - and - see. The industry has low confidence in the future, and the terminal demand is weak [10].