中原期货晨会纪要-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with some indices and commodities rising while others falling. The macro - economic environment is influenced by various policies and events, and different sectors have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [2][4][6]. - The "anti - involution" policy expectations in some industries are rising, which may lead to a bottom - up rebound in the prices of some commodities and have a positive impact on PPI and CPI [18]. - In the stock market, A - shares are performing well, but there are still risks of abnormal fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to the performance of different indices and sectors [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Index and Commodity Price Tracking - Stock Indices: On July 11, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.433% to 44650.64, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.094% to 20630.66, the S&P 500 rose 0.275% to 6280.46, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.569% to 24028.37 [2]. - Commodity Futures: COMEX gold rose 0.316% to 3333.00, COMEX silver rose 2.787% to 37.63, while NYMEX crude oil fell 2.079% to 66.87 and ICE Brent oil fell 1.852% to 68.88 [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - From January 1, 2025, the basic pension for retirees who completed retirement procedures and received pensions by the end of 2024 will be increased by 2% [6]. - The US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates and considered appointing a "shadow chairman" to pressure the Fed [6]. - China's automobile production and sales in June 2025 increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively, and new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 26.4% and 26.7% year - on - year [7]. - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, 2025 [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices in a narrow - range shock. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term but still in a downward trend [11]. - Oils and Fats: The trading volume of oils and fats increased, and it is expected to be volatile in the near future [11]. - Sugar: The price of sugar has broken through the shock range, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The risk lies in the rebound of raw sugar and the arrival of imported sugar [11]. - Corn: The supply of corn is under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions with a stop - loss at 2330 yuan [11]. - Pigs: The supply of pigs is increasing, and the room for price increase is limited [13]. - Eggs: The price of eggs is expected to rise seasonally, and the futures market is expected to rebound [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: Due to the rebound of coal prices and positive market sentiment, caustic soda has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the pressure in the range of 2500 - 2600 yuan/ton [13]. - Urea: The price of urea is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to export quotas and the follow - up of autumn fertilizers [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The increase in copper tariffs and policy uncertainty put pressure on copper prices, while low inventory supports aluminum prices but weak orders may limit the upside [15]. - Alumina: The macro - market atmosphere drives the increase in alumina prices, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the May high [15]. - Steel Products: The price of steel products is expected to be strongly volatile due to factors such as the closure of ports during the Mongolian Naadam Festival and the relatively stable inventory [15]. - Ferroalloys: Affected by rumors and policy expectations, ferroalloys rose strongly, and the long - term over - capacity pattern remains [15]. - Double Cokes: Due to the port closure and the expected increase in coke prices, double cokes are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance. It is recommended to trade in the range of 63,000 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: A - shares rose, and the trading volume increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC, and be cautious about market fluctuations [19][20]. - Options: The trading volume and open interest of some options increased, and the implied volatility changed. Trend investors can conduct long - 50 and short - 1000 arbitrage, and volatility investors can buy straddles [20][21].