Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers trend judgments for various products in different sectors: - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern; Treasury bond futures may face limited upside due to the central bank's interest - rate risk warning; Gold and silver prices are likely to oscillate; Copper prices are bearish; Aluminum prices are likely to oscillate strongly; Alumina prices are expected to stabilize and rebound; Zinc prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities are recommended; Nickel prices will oscillate, with short - term short - selling suggestions; Stainless steel prices may rebound, but the sustainability needs observation [1]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Tin prices have limited upward drive in the short term; Industrial silicon prices will oscillate; Polysilicon prices are bullish; Lithium carbonate prices will oscillate [1]. - Black Metals: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are supported by cost; Iron ore prices will oscillate; Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are under pressure; Coke and coking coal prices have short - term support but face medium - term oversupply; Anthracite prices suggest short - term avoidance of short positions and building long - short hedging positions for industrial customers [1]. - Agricultural Products: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate; Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly; Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production needs attention; Corn prices are expected to oscillate, and short - selling opportunities for the far - month contract C01 are recommended; Soybean meal prices may have different trends depending on trade policies; Pulp prices are currently over - valued with macro - level positives; Log prices are bearish; Live pig futures are stable; Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by supply and demand, with short - term support from consumption; Asphalt prices will oscillate; Natural rubber prices are bearish; BR rubber prices have some support and speculation; PTA prices are affected by various factors; Ethylene glycol prices are expected to reach a certain level; Short - fiber prices are affected by cost and production; Styrene prices are affected by raw material and production factors [1]. - Energy and Chemicals: Urea prices will oscillate; PE and PP prices are likely to oscillate strongly; PVC prices will oscillate strongly; Chlor - alkali prices are affected by various factors; LPG prices will oscillate [1]. - Other: The freight rate of the European container shipping line is expected to form an arc - top shape, with the peak time advancing [1]. 2. Core Views The report analyzes the trends of different products in multiple sectors based on various factors such as market supply and demand, policy changes, international trade policies, and geopolitical situations. It provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each product, highlighting the importance of considering both short - term and long - term factors in investment decisions [1]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Macro Finance - Index Futures: Short - term domestic and international positive factors are limited, but market sentiment and liquidity are acceptable, so the index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Precious Metals: Market uncertainties remain, so gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Base Metals: Copper prices may decline due to potential US tariffs; Aluminum prices are supported by alumina but face high - price demand suppression; Alumina prices are expected to rise due to supply - side reform expectations; Zinc prices are under pressure from tariffs and inventory accumulation; Nickel prices will oscillate, affected by supply and macro factors; Stainless steel prices may rebound, but the sustainability needs to be observed [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Tin: Short - term fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upward drive [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south, and demand has marginal growth but a potential decline in the future, with high market sentiment [1]. - Polysilicon: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform, and market sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply has no reduction, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital game, so prices will oscillate [1]. Black Metals - Steel Products: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are supported by strong furnace materials; Iron ore prices have a positive commodity sentiment but a weakening fundamental situation; Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by supply - demand and cost factors; Coke and coking coal prices have short - term support but face medium - term oversupply; Anthracite prices suggest short - term avoidance of short positions and building long - short hedging positions for industrial customers [1]. Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate due to different factors such as monthly reports and lack of drivers [1]. - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to trade negotiations, weather, and consumption season factors [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase, and the impact of crude oil on sugar production needs attention [1]. - Corn: Short - term policy - related grain supply and price differentials have a negative impact, and far - month contract short - selling opportunities are recommended [1]. - Soybean Meal: The price trend depends on Sino - US trade policies [1]. - Pulp: The price is currently over - valued, but there are macro - level positives [1]. - Log: The price is bearish due to the off - season and limited supply reduction [1]. - Live Pig: Futures prices are stable due to存栏 and出栏 factors [1]. - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Prices are affected by supply and demand, with short - term support from consumption [1]. - Asphalt: Prices will oscillate due to cost and demand factors [1]. - Natural Rubber: Prices are bearish due to weakening demand, increased supply, and inventory increase [1]. - BR Rubber: Prices have some support and speculation [1]. - PTA: Prices are affected by factors such as basis, crude oil, and polyester downstream load [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Prices are expected to reach a certain level due to coal prices, arrival volume, and polyester procurement [1]. - Short - fiber: Prices are affected by cost and production factors [1]. - Styrene: Prices are affected by raw material and production factors [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea: Prices will oscillate due to domestic demand and export expectations [1]. - PE and PP: Prices are likely to oscillate strongly due to macro - sentiment, maintenance, and demand factors [1]. - PVC: Prices will oscillate strongly due to factors such as coal prices, maintenance, and seasonal demand [1]. - Chlor - alkali: Prices are affected by various factors such as coal prices, arrival volume, and profit [1]. - LPG: Prices will oscillate due to spot market, crude oil support, and seasonal demand factors [1]. Other - Container Shipping (European Line): The freight rate is expected to form an arc - top shape, with the peak time advancing and sufficient subsequent capacity deployment [1].
日度策略参考-20250711
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-11 03:17