Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is expected to have no trend and should be treated with caution [7]. - The stock index is expected to perform well in the long - term, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The precious metals market is expected to continue its long - term bull trend, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can wait for shorting opportunities after the rebound [12]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can consider short - term long opportunities and wait for mid - term shorting entry points [15]. - For ferroalloys, if the spot losses continue to widen, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [18]. - The crude oil market is expected to rebound and then decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [21]. - The fuel oil market has stabilized after a sharp decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [23]. - For synthetic rubber, investors can wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors can focus on mid - term long opportunities [28]. - The PVC market is expected to remain weak [31]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the mid - term [32]. - The PX market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors should participate with caution [33]. - The PTA market is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and investors can consider shorting at high levels [35]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors should participate in the range [36]. - The short - fiber market is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should be cautious about the repair of the processing margin [38]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should participate with caution [39]. - The soda ash market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and investors with long positions should control risks [42]. - The glass market is expected to rebound in the short - term [43]. - The caustic soda market is expected to have limited upward momentum in the short - term [45]. - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [46]. - The lithium carbonate market has not changed its supply - demand pattern, and investors should not chase high prices [49]. - The copper market has high short - term uncertainty, and it is advisable to wait and see [52]. - The tin market is expected to be strong and fluctuate [53]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate [54]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider long opportunities at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, investors can consider call options at support intervals after the decline [56]. - For palm oil, investors can consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58]. - For rapeseed oil and meal, investors can consider long opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [59]. - For cotton, it is advisable to short at high levels [62]. - The sugar market is expected to fluctuate in the range [66]. - For apples, investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [68]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to try shorting at high levels [70]. - For eggs, it is advisable to hold short positions [72]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch follows the corn market [75]. - The log market is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [78]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 32.8 billion yuan. The Fed is divided on dealing with tariff risks, and Powell is taking a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - The Sino - US economic and trade relations are stable, the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend and should be treated with caution [6][7]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures were mixed. The government adjusted the basic pension for retirees. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the valuation of domestic assets is low, and China's economy has sufficient resilience. It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases support the price. If the US economy slows down, the Fed may cut interest rates, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded strongly. The important meeting triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the real estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the rebound space is limited. Technically, the short - term trend may continue. Investors can wait for shorting opportunities after the rebound [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. Policy expectations boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The valuation is relatively high. Technically, it was supported at the previous low. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The important meeting triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the actual production is increasing. The cost of coke is supported. Technically, the short - term trend is strong. Investors can consider short - term long opportunities and wait for mid - term shorting entry points [15]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose. The supply of manganese ore is increasing, and the inventory is low. The production of ferroalloys is rising, but the demand is weak. The inventory is high. In the off - season, the demand has peaked, and the price is under pressure. If the spot losses continue to widen, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [17][18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose strongly. The CFTC data showed that speculators reduced their net long positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased. OPEC + will gradually increase production. It is expected that the rebound will encounter resistance and decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [19][21]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil opened low and fluctuated. The premium of Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil decreased, and the market was calm. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory is negative, while the easing of tariff frictions is positive. It has stabilized after a sharp decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [22][23]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price decreased, and the profit turned positive. The supply and demand are short - term loose. The production capacity utilization rate is stable, but the demand from tire enterprises is weak. The inventory is high. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [24][26]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The domestic production area was affected by rainfall, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was difficult to improve, and the inventory was high. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors can focus on mid - term long opportunities [27][28]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The production is expected to continue to decline, the demand has no sign of improvement, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak operation [29][31]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply is expected to remain high, the demand is expected to pick up, and the inventory is expected to decline. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the mid - term [31][32]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply load decreased slightly, and the import increased. The short - term supply and demand improved slightly, and the balance remained tight. The cost support from crude oil was insufficient. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors should participate with caution [33]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply load increased, and the demand load decreased. The short - term supply and demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. It is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and investors can consider shorting at high levels [34][35]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply load increased, and the inventory increased. The demand from the polyester industry decreased. The short - term supply and demand turned weak, and the inventory is at a low level. It is advisable to participate in the range [36]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply load decreased, and the demand was weak. The cost is volatile, and the short - term drive is insufficient. It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should be cautious about the repair of the processing margin [37][38]. Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The raw material price is volatile, and the supply load decreased. The demand from the downstream beverage industry is increasing, and the export is high. It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should participate with caution [39]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and investors with long positions should control risks [40][42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply and demand have no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. It was driven up by the energy sector, and it is expected to rebound in the short - term [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand from the alumina industry is affected by maintenance and production reduction. The overall supply and demand are loose, and the regional difference is obvious. It is expected to have limited upward momentum in the short - term [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The supply is expected to expand, and the downstream demand is weak. The industry is in the off - season, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust [46]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, and the consumption has improved slightly, but the inventory is still high. Investors should not chase high prices [49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated higher. The US will impose a 50% tariff on copper, which may impact China. The spot market is weak, and the overall demand is limited. The short - term trend is uncertain, and it is advisable to wait and see [50][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, the processing fee is low, and the production is below the normal level. The consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be strong and fluctuate [53]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The price of nickel ore weakened, the demand from stainless steel mills is weak, and the overall supply is in excess. It is expected to fluctuate [54]. Soybean Meal and Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal and oil futures rose. The domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil mill profit is low, and the import cost is rising. The consumption of soybean meal and oil is expected to increase slightly. For soybean meal, investors can consider long opportunities at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, investors can consider call options at support intervals after the decline [55][56]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil futures fell. The Malaysian palm oil inventory reached an 18 - month high in June. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - high level. It is advisable to consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [57][58]. Rapeseed Oil and Meal - The previous trading day, rapeseed oil and meal futures had different performances. The supply of rapeseed is tight, and the demand is weak. The inventory of rapeseed and meal is at a low level, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a high level. It is advisable to consider long opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [58][59]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US cotton growth condition is good, and the export sales decreased. The domestic cotton production is expected to increase. It is advisable to short at high levels [60][62]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the Indian sugar production is expected to decline. The domestic sugar production increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range [63][66]. Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The apple production is expected to increase slightly this year, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [67][68]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the cost is low. It is advisable to try shorting at high levels [69][70]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg production is expected to increase in July, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the cost is low. It is advisable to hold short positions [71][72]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn futures fell slightly, and corn starch futures rose slightly. The domestic corn supply and demand are approaching balance, the policy is favorable, and the consumption is warming up. The inventory pressure has decreased, but the import may increase. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is advisable to wait and see [73][75]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The sea freight has an expected decline, the arrival of logs is increasing, and the demand from construction sites is weak. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [76][78].
西南期货早间评论-20250711
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-07-11 03:22